Doctor's view of Beirut

Press, 1 June 1984, Page 7

Doctor's view of Beirut

If there is no improvement in the political and security situation in Lebanon over the (northern) summer there is a strong possibility of a new outbreak of fighting which might lead to a new outflow of refugees, according to Dr Bill Harris, a former Canterbury man who has been living in Beirut for most of the last six months. “The question might then arise of New Zealand’s taking a significant number of Lebanese who have finally despaired of any prospect of reconstruction of their homeland,” he said. Dr Harris has a Rockefeller Foundation fellowship at the School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University in Washington. He graduated from the University of Canterbury and gained a doctorate from the University of Durham. He has been living in Lebanon conducting research for a book on the confrontation between

Syria and Israel in Lebanon after the June, 1982, Israeli invasion. Dr Harris said that there was a lull in the fighting at the moment but conditions remained unstable because of the absence of any progress towards a resolution of the main conflict between Christian east Beirut and the Druse and Muslim militias controlling west Beirut. He said that west Beirut was dominated by Shia and Sunni Muslims but also had a substantial Christian minority, amounting to at least 25 per cent of the population. “An important element in the present instability is the deep frustration within the' Shia community — onethird of Lebanon’s population,” Dr Harris said. The Shia and Druse military take-over of west Beirut has not been converted into any Shia political gain at the constitutional level. They still feel themselves underrepresented in national in-

stitutions. “Frustration is compounded by the continued Israeli occupation of south Lebanon, home of the bulk of the Shia community, who are effectively cut off from west Beirut.” The economic and social consequences of the latest round of fighting had been devastating, Dr Harris said. The renewed division of Beirut, involving the closing of the port, the airport, the steep food price rises, and further deterioration in the dilapidated telephone services had caused the worst economic crisis in the 10 years of civil strife. “Against this background, tens of thousands of people have been displaced from their homes on both sides of the dividing line, many now without any support except for emergency assistance.” Dr Harris said that it was difficult to see how those conations could remain untreated for very long with-

out themselves contributing to more violence. This applied particularly to west Beirut where the refugee problem was worse and there was a lack of a central authority. The future course of events depends heavily on Syria, Dr Harris believes. After the scrapping of the agreement with Israel and the withdrawal of the Americans, Syria has become the dominant external force in relation to the Lebanese Government. “Syria may have a strong interest in stabilisation to secure its western flank so that it can deal with other problems in the Middle East. “This may be complicated by a parallel interest in some continued violence to make the Lebanese more receptive of Syrian intervention. The course of events will also depend on Syria’s capacity to keep its hand on the various Lebanese factions and torpid its

position against Israeli manoeuvring.” Dr Harris sees a deep psychological uncertainty among Lebanon’s middle classes, who have had to undergo the latest rounds of hostilities after nine years of turbulence. If violence flares again it is these professional and commercial people who will want to migrate. He does not believe that they would want to pursue the conflicts of the Middle East in the countries to which they migrated. They would want to get away from such things altogether. Asked about the difficulties of living in Beirut, Dr Harris said that it was normal to have electricity for only two nights a week, to be subjected to occasional random artillery bombardment, and to put up with insecure streets in west Beirut. He expects to be back there within a fortnight.