Can leader keep his grip?

Press, 26 May 1984, Page 11

Can leader keep his grip?

By

GRAHAM LOVELL,

Reuter (through NZPA) Manila An unexpectedly strong showing by opposition parties in the Philippines’ Parliamentary elections has dealt a sharp psychological blow to the 18-year-o!d Government of Ferdinand Marcos But it remained to be seen whether the Opposition can act as an effective balancing force to loosen his still-firm grip on the National Assembly and Government. Returns from the elections on May 14 are still incomplete and many of the declared results have been challenged amid allegations ■:A vote-rigging, intimidation. and violence. The ruling New Society Movement is assured of its majority of the 183 elected seats in the assembly, where the President can appoint ’.B more members, and he is expected to do so next week. Latest results gave it 86 seats, compared with 46 for the opposition and five Independents. But the battering dealt to New Society, including defeat for at least three Cabinet Ministers, turned the elections into a publie accounting of the President’s highly personal rule. It also gave the Opposition. principally the coalitwr. United Nationalist Democratic Organisation, a platform from which to biiooh a challenge in the

1987 Presidential elections. Its immediate targets include an economic crisis and foreign debts totalling ?US26 billion, the still-un-solved killing of Benigno Aquino, and the autocratic power that Mr Marcos still can wield through decreemaking authority. But Mr Marcos, in his first post-election appearance, appeared confident and declared that he had been given a popular mandate to continue his programmes. As a sign of his confidence he assumed responsibility for what he said would be “odious and unpalatable” measures needed to deal with the country’s economic problems. The first of these measures was an 8 per cent increase m the price of oil products to reduce the oil import bill and check the severe shortage of foreign

exchange. More austerity is a certainty to meet conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund for its approval of a JUS6SOM stand-by credit. This, in turn, would lead to rescheduling of some of the huge foreign debt and raising more loans and credits. Mr Marcos was relying on the comparatively clean elections, described by one Western diplomat as, “quite clean though hardly fair,” and internal stability to restore sagging foreign confidence in the Philippines. But Opposition leaders have given no sign that they will co-operate with him. Nor are they willing to concede that the elections were fair or honest, despite their showing at the polls. While jockeying among themselves for leadership roles in the new assembly,

which is due to meet in July, they are also lodging complaints with the new official commission on elections. They accuse New Society supporters and sometimes the military of interfering with the voting, stealing ballot-boxes, and rigging results. In some districts they demand fresh polls. Hearings may continue long after the assembly meets but few changes are likely. For New Society and the Presidential Palace, the results have led to soulsearching over what went wrong and how they misjudged the popular mood, especially in Manila. Imelda Marcos, the President’s wife and Governor of metropolitan Manila, was campaign manager and had confidently predicted that New Society would win all 21 seats in the capital. It seems likely now to have only half-a-dozen. Party sources said that a big mistake had been to miscalculate the younger vote and, one source said, “The depth of feeling that seemed to go against us.” “I think it was a personal thing in metropolitan Manila,” said one official. “I think it was very much directed against the (Presidential) Palace.” Other political sources said that the Aquino killing in August was a main factor, despite Mr Marcos’s assertions to the contrary.

The self-exiled Opposition leader was shot as he was being escorted from an aircraft that returned him to the Philippines after three years in the United States. Political analysts believe that the election results might embolden a special commission which has been holding an inquiry into the killing. The military asserts that he was shot by a man they identified as a known criminal and communist guerrilla. But few believe this after six months of public hearings and analysts said that the commission, which has gained, credibility, might produce a final report that could embarrass the Marcos Government and the military. United Nationalist coalition leaders, including its president, Salvador Laurel, are anxious to patch up divisions in the grouping and heal disputes which have left potential allies barely on speaking terms and easy prey to be wooed by the Marcos Administration. They want above all to prevent the new assembly from becoming a repeat of the present largely rubber stamp Parliament in which they held fewer than a dozen of the 165 elected seats. Their target is to change a Constitutional amendment which gives Mr Marcos power to override the assembly and rule by decree.