Philippines election

Press, 25 May 1984, Page 12

Philippines election

The National Assembly election in the Philippines has had an outcome that President Marcos wants to change. Because he fears that the Opposition and the independents will have the 20 per cent of votes required to impeach him, he has adopted the simple expedient of increasing the number of seats by 18 and making the 18 appointments himself. He already has the authority to appoint 17 members of the Assembly. The reason that he will probably get away with the latest move is that the old National Assembly has not formally disbanded. In the expiring Assembly he has overwhelming support to the extent that many regarded it as a rubber stamp for the President’s policies. The question may be asked why he bothered to have an election at all. The reasons are diverse. Even authoritarian leaders have to act from time to time to make their rule appear legitimate. The Philippines has also had a history of having elections. American support for the Philippines is also of crucial importance for President Marcos, and the United States usually feels better disposed towards countries that have elections. The Philippines is also important to the United States because a huge naval base and an air force base are there. President Marcos himself likes to preserve the impression that his method of rule adheres to democratic ideals, nothwithstanding a few variations, including martial law and the right of the President to rule by decree. The Philippines has immense external debts and a rescheduling of some of the debts is bound to be

needed. President Marcos would be in a stronger position internationally if he were confirmed in office by an election which gave him strong support from the National Assembly. The election was not useless. President Marcos had the almost unanimous support of the press; he had seemingly unlimited campaign finances; he had the backing of the Army; and he was able to offer political favours to those who would bring voters out for him. Nevertheless, the Opposition and independents have taken 54 seats so far, against the 89 that have gone to President Marcos’s New Society Movement. President Marcos will still have a majority, but the Opposition United Nationalist Democratic Organisation will have a far stronger voice. President Marcos’s manipulation of the numbers in the National Assembly and the impression that he is giving of slowing the counting of votes after the election on May 14 may still have serious consequences for him and for the whole country. His actions may enrage sufficient Filipinos to ensure that the violence that accompanied the election will continue. The assassination of the Opposition leader, Benigno Aquino, when he arrived back in the Philippines, the immense debts that the Philippines has accumulated, and the election itself all contain grounds for revolution. Informed observers of the Philippines believe that it is too early to talk of revolution. President Marcos may have more time; but not necessarily much more time.