California a plum in United States politics

Press, 2 May 1984, Page 14

California a plum in United States politics

From

JOHN HUTCHISON,

in San Francisco

The powerful and growing influence of California, most populous of the 50 states in the United States, is likely to find emphatic expression in three political events between June and November. The first instance will be on June 5, when the state will hold primary elections. It will be the last of the state primaries, and the biggest. The Republicans will nominate Mr Reagan for a second term in the presidency. The Californians forming the Republican delegation so chosen will go on to Houston, Texas, later on in the summer to take part in what is expected to be a routine nomination at the Republican national convention of the man in the White House. The Republican aspect of the June 5 primary is, therefore, of indifferent interest. But in the same polling places, Democrats will probably pick a delegation pledged either to Mr Walter Mondale or Mr Gary Hart. It may be that the two will be running so close together by then that the California delegation will clinch the national decision. The polls here presently put Mr Hart in front in this state, but with Mr Mondale gaining slowly on him. If neither man has a clear

nationwide advantage when the California primary ballots are counted, the next contest will be resolved in California, too, at the Democratic national convention in San Francisco, from June 16 to 19. California’s delegation, largest of all, will have 345 votes, with all but 39 of them committed in advance to the winner of the primary. That huge bloc could swing the convention. In any event it will be a powerful factor in the nominating process. Political observers believe the two leading candidates could arrive at the convention so evenly matched that Mr Jesse Jackson and his delegates, few as they are, will be able to determine the winner or to precipitate an open convention. That might throw up a compromise candidate not now in the running. In the 150 years in which the fractious Democrats have held nominating conventions, there have been several occasions when the process has required repeated voting before a majority could be achieved. “Dark horses” have been nominated — personalities emerging from relative obscurity to become compromises. In 1924, exhausted delegates took 103 ballots

over several days before choosing such a nominee. In the race between Mr Reagan and the Mr Somebody anointed at the convention, California may also be the pivotal state. Presidents are elected by states, each state choosing by its popular vote which candidate it favours, and each state having one electoral vote for each seat it holds in the House of Representatives in Washington. California has 45 — more than any other state. Most pollsters say that if the national election were held today, Mr Reagan would take California; but the election will not be held until November 6. American politics is a volatile process, and California voters are notoriously fickle. A majority of them call themselves Democrats, but they are quite capable of overturning the polls, the surveys, and the applecarts of politicians and forecasters. They are numerous enough to do so. How they act in the primary and in the convention may decide for the nation who will face Mr Reagan. What they do in November could decide who will replace him.