President Reagan in China

Press, 26 April 1984, Page 20

President Reagan in China

President Reagan is calling his visit to China a “long journey to peace,” perhaps hoping that the “long journey” will sound an echo of Mao’s “long march,” but without implying American approval of the events that took Mao to Peking and China to communism. The visit may help to maintain peace in the Far East. It will probably have a lot to do with trade, and with President Reagan’s re-election or defeat in November. The China visit may be considered to be the beginning of the Republican Party’s election campaign in the United States. President Reagan has said he is continuing the process of reconciliation begun by President Nixon when he travelled to China in 1972. That year was also an American Presidential election year. The visit by Mr Nixon, although prepared for by Dr Henry Kissinger, involved much greater political risks. President Nixon was attempting to end years of hostility between China and the United States. He was also changing dramatically, the relationship of the United States, the Soviet Union, and China. It was a bold and subtle exercise. Out of President Nixon’s manoeuvring with the Soviet Union came a series of agreements about nuclear arms and ways of avoiding nuclear war. The Soviet Union did not have the same suspicion of President Nixon that it has displayed towards President Reagan. President Reagan will probably seek less and accomplish less than did President Nixon. Although China is not an official ally of the United States, there are important connections in trade, defence, and strategic planning between the two countries. What President Reagan can do is make these links even stronger. President Reagan, unlike President Nixon, appears not to be attempting to reach an accord with the Soviet Union, but to ensure that China and the United States maintain their common aversion to the Soviet Union.

How far tension among the great powers is reduced will depend on the extent to which President Reagan and the Chinese leaders show restraint in their comments about the Soviet Union. Restraint was shown during the visit of the Chinese Prime Minister, Zhao Ziyang, to the United States in January. The visit of President Reagan to China is likely to be more flamboyant. Important questions still divide the United States and China. Disagreement remains about

what military equipment the United States will sell to China. A few weeks after Zhao Ziyang’s visit, an arms procurement team from China toured American establishments, largely in secret. Sellin high-technology equipment is still a sensitive business, but the list of the material that may be exported to China is being extended all the time.

Over all, American exports to China have been estimated to rise to about $3.5 billion in the present year, giving the United States a surplus of trade with China of about $1 billion. The United States has not yet agreed to sell China nuclear reactors and fuel. China has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, though it has joined the International Atomic Energy Agency. It has refused to allow international inspection of nuclear sites, and has refused to be bound by American consent for the use of reprocessed nuclear fuel. During his visit to the United States, Zhao said that China would not help another country develop nuclear weapons. This was considered to be an important development in China’s attitude, but not enough to satisfy the requirements of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Attitudes to Taiwan also continue to divide China and the United States. American sales of arms to Taiwan have outraged China, and Zhao has said that China will not give a commitment to any foreign country that only peaceful means will be used to bring Taiwan back under rule from Peking. Diiring December the senate Foreign Relations Committee in the United States passed a resolution supporting selfdetermination for Taiwan. President Reagan also upset China by referring to Taiwan as the Republic of China. Yet Zhao also said: “All policies that we are going to adopt towards Hong Kong can also be applied to Taiwan, and Taiwan may receive even more favourable treatment.” Such an attitude could be acceptable in the United States. An improvement in the relations between two large countries, especially countries of such importance to the world as China and the United States, can help improve the prospects for maintaining peace in the world. If President Reagan and China refrain from seeming to threaten the Soviet Union, even as their own relations are warming, President Reagan’s visit has a better prospect of deserving the label of “a long journey for peace.”