National regains lead in opinion poll

Press, 10 March 1984, Page 1

National regains lead in opinion poll

The National Party has regained first place in voters’ favour with 40 per cent support, four points ahead of Labour.

The New Zealand Party has held the 18 per cent support to which it soared in December.

Social Credit has lost three points to 5 per cent, its lowest rating since September, 1975.

Those are among the findings of the latest “New Zealand Herald” National Research Bureau survey, which covered 2000 eligible voters selected by random probability methods from 19 main population centres.

The survey was taken between February 18 and 21, so that it does not record any effects of the New Zealand Party’s inaugural conference.

Most of the interval between the latest poll and the previous one, taken early in December, saw little political activity. Parliament ended before Christmas in a flurry of acrimony and revolt among Government back-benchers.

Closer to the time of the survey, New Zealand could note the disclosures of

Nineteen per cent of eligible voters were uncommitted — that is, they said they would; not vote, or did not know, or refused to say which party they would vote for — compared with 20 per cent in December and a 12 per cent non-vote in

rising costs in the Otago irrigation schemes and the preparations for the thawing of the economic freeze. The February survey confirms that Social Credit is the biggest percentage loser to the New Zealand Party. Of those who voted Social Credit in 1981, 35 per cent would have voted for the new party last month. National would lose 12 per cent of its 1981 voters to the New Zealand Party, and Labour would lose 13 per cent. Both figures are slightly down on the December findings. Less expected, perhaps, is the finding that 21 per cent of Social Credit voters would switch to National, as compared with 8 per cent in December. People were asked: “If an election had been held yesterday, which party would you have voted for?” The responses of intending voters, as compared with those in previous polls and with the actual vote at the 1981 General Election, were:

the November, 1981, election. The poll figures are subject to a maximum statistical sampling error of plus or minus 2 per cent.

The loyalty and switching patterns of intending voters, with December figures in brackets, are: Of 1981 National voters, 85 per cent would remain loyal (81 per cent in December), 12 per cent would switch to the New Zealand Party (15 per cent), and 3 per cent would switch to Labour (unchanged). Of 1981 Labour voters, 82 per cent would remain loyal (79 per cent), 13 per cent would switch to the New Zealand Party (14 per cent), and 5 per cent would switch to National (4 per cent). Of 1981 Social Credit voters, 35 per cent would switch to the New Zealand Party (34 per cent), 28 per cent would remain loyal (36 per cent), 21 per cent would switch to National (8 per cent), and 16 per cent would switch to Labour (22 per cent).

Of newly eligible voters, 38 per cent support Labour (41 per cent), 33 per cent support National (42 per cent), 25 per cent support the New Zealand Party (11 per cent), 2 per cent support Social Credit (6 per cent), and 2 per cent support all others (none).

Of 1981 non-voters who would vote now, 44 per cent support National (33 per cent), 28 per cent support Labour (35 per cent), 20 per cent support the New Zealand Party (26 per cent), 6 per cent support Social Credit (5 per cent), and 2 per cent support all others (1 per cent). An effect of the interparty switching and new voting intentions is that the New Zealand Party relies more on former Social Credit and Labour voters, although not by much, than it does on disaffected National voters.

Present party supporters, and the 19 of every 100 eligible voters who form the uncommitted group, voted as follows (read downards) in the 1981 General Election:

Support for Social Credit is consistent across most of the age groups. The appeal of Labour and National peaks among those aged 55 and over. On the other hand, support for the New Zealand Party is notably high among those aged 44 and under. The age characteristics of party supporters and of the uncommitted group are: Parties Currently Preferred

FEB ’84 % DEC ’83 % SEPT JULY MAY APR NOV JULY MAY FEB Nov. 81 Election % ’83 % ’83 % ’83 % ’83 % ’82 % ’82 % ’82 % ’82 % National 40 35 45 43 41 40 41 39 42 40 39 Labour 36 38 37 48 48 50 40 39 38 39 39 N.Z. Party 18 18 6 Socred 5 8 11 8 10 9 18 21 19 20 21 All others 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Previous Parties Currently Preferred Allegiance National Labour N.Z. Socred Uncommitted (1981 Election) % % % % % National 75 2 24 1 17 Labour 5 79 27 2 16 Socred 8 7 32 89 22 All others — — 1 — 1 Didn’t vote 6 4 6 6 34 New voters 6 8 10 2 10 While National and Labour appeal to men and women about equally, Social Credit shows a predominance of male support, and the New Zealand Party attracts male support even more strongly. Parties ' Currently Preferred Sex of National Labour N.Z. Socred Uncommitted Voter % % % % % Females 51 50 40 44 57 Males 49 50 60 56 43

Age of Voter National % Labour % N.Z. % Socred % Uncommitted % 16-24 17 16 28 22 21 25-34 22 19 31 27 21 35-44 16 15 23 19 17 45-54 13 19 7 12 13 55 plus 32 31 11 20 28 MONDAY: Voters rank the political —Copyright, 1984, “New Zealand Herald” leaders.