N.A.T.O. finds Soviet defence budget low

Press, 29 February 1984, Page 17

N.A.T.O. finds Soviet defence budget low

By

IAN MATHER

Russia’s defence spending over the past seven years has been increasing at less than half the rate previously supposed in the West, according to a confidential N.A.T.O. study. It says that a change took place in 1976, since when growth in defence spending has been between 2 and 2% per cent a year in real terms, or possibly a little less. That is lower than the current annual increases in defence spending by the United States, Britain, and a number of other N.A.T.O. countries. The study, entitled “Military Expenditures of the Soviet Union and Prospects for the Future,” is by N.A.T.O.’s Scientific and Economic Committee and was approved by N.A.T.O. earlier this month. It comes after a major downward reassessment of Soviet defence spending by the C.1.A., and incorporates intelligence assessments by Britain and West Germany. The study says that from 1970 to 1976 Soviet military spending did grow substantially, at about 4 to 5 per cent a year. Moreover, even at today’s lower rates of increase, “large quantities of military hard-

ware were delivered to the armed forces.” They include 75 big ships, about 2500 intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine missiles, 6000 military aircraft, and 15,000 tanks. A possible number of causes of the slow-down since 1976 are suggested. The military sector may have been affected by the difficulties experienced by the Soviet economy, which has grown at a markedly lower rate since the late 19705. Some sectors have been beset by bottlenecks, giving rise to supply problems for the defence industries. The study says that technical difficulties posed by incorporating new technology into new weapons systems may also have produced a slow-down. The scale and pace of technological innovation may be raising more difficulties than they did.

It predicts that Soviet defence spending will begin to rise more rapidly again in the early 19905. A

large number of programmes are at the research and development stage. They include fighter and airborne warning aircraft, ballistic and cruise missiles, space systems, and submarines. “It is predicted that more systems will reach initial operational capability in the 1980 s than in either the 1960 s or 19705,” says the study. Last December, C.I.A. specialists concluded that their earlier estimates of Soviet defence spending had been wrong and that the growth might have been less than 2 per cent. Western analysts use a building block approach, laboriously calculating what it would cost to make every piece of Soviet equipment. Now they have concluded that the Soviet Union has been producing less military equipment than they thought. Under a N.A.T.O. commitment, Britain is increasing its defence spending in real terms by 3 per cent a year until 1986. Recently, President Reagan asked for a 13 per cent increase in United States defence spending, but his opponents hope to reduce that to an increase of about 5 per cent. Copyright — London Observer Service.