Afghan war goes on

Press, 10 December 1983, Page 21

Afghan war goes on

From

JOHN STOKES

in Peshawar

It is almost four years since Soviet tanks stormed into Afghanistan, provoking what has turned out to be the longest war the Russians have had to fight outside their borders since 1945.

As the Afghans prepare for a fifth year of guerrilla struggle, there are few signs of any real success and even fewer hopes of a speedy settlement. Peshawar these days is full of Ahghan Mujahidin who have returned from the front and are spending the harsh winter months with their families, scattered now throughout Pakistan in refugee camps but mostly in the Frontier Province and Baluchistan. Peshawar is also filled with foreigners—Arab religious leaders trying to get the warring factions together; French, American, and British “diplomats” trying to shift the disparate Afghan guerrilla groups into their camp; arms suppliers and agents pretending to be journalists; and the übiquitious Chinese who are now the main arms suppliers to the Afghans. Despite the unabated blood-lett-ing within Afghanistan, the real theatre of the war has shifted to the international arena where the search for a solution goes on.

In the summer, the Russians told the United Nations-sponsored indirect talks between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Soviets that they were ready for a “Zahir Shah solution,” meaning a return to constitutional monarchy under former King Zahny Shah, who

would put together a middle-of-the-road civilian government tilted heavily towards Moscow. Pakistan, with nearly three million refugees on its soil and a blossoming opposition movement that is threatening the regime of President Zia and his generals, is ready for a solution. However, the Pakistanis and the Americans are backing the Afghan Muslim Fundamentalists, whom the Russians will never tolerate.

Pakistani officials in Islamabad say privately that the Americans have jettisoned peace moves, preferring to let “the Afghans bleed the Russians white.” They also admit that there is really no chance of a settlement until there is global detente between the super-Powers. Pakistan is heavily in debt to America, and its Army is being massively rearmed by the Pentagon, so it is in no position to go through peace talks on its own. The Saudis and the Chinese, both financial and economic backers of Pakistan, are also in no mood for a settlement.

Afghan guerrilla leaders have already said they do not favour a Zahir Shah solution which would leave them without authority; neither would they like to see Pakistan’s President Zia pushed aside in favou| of a civilian gov-

ernment that would doubtless be headed by the People’s Party of former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. The People’s Party has made it clear it would negotiate with the Russians to get the refugees home. Despite better arms than they have ever had before, the Mujahidin have barely dented the Soviet war machine, although damage to their own country has been immense.

The real problem is that even after four years of war, the fundamentalists are split into a dozen groups who fight each other in the field as bitterly as they do the Russians.

Inside Afghanistan life is miserable. More than an eighth of the population has fled and just before the winter snows blocked the passes this year, more arrived in Pakistan telling stories of food and fuel shortages and astronomically high prices. In a rare moment of candour, the Afghan Foreign Minister, Shah Muhammad Dost, admitted recently that the guerrillas had paralysed the country’s economic infrastructure and destroyed 75 per cent of all communication lines and 14 per cent of all motor vehicles. Copyright—London Observer Service.