Flawed evidence in judgment Gaffe

Press, 24 September 1983, Page 28

Flawed evidence in judgment Gaffe

By

J. J. BOYLE

An Auckland judgment has already been passed on the unbeaten Riccarton three-year-old Gaffa — a judgment based largely on flawed “evidence.”

“Gaffa could go on to become a top sprinter. But it is not realistic to rate him as a serious threat to the northern three-year-olds in the classics.”

Thus Clyde Conway, writing in his Bloodlines volumn for the New Zealand “Herald.”

Mr Conway believes there is little chance that Gaffa will win beyond sprint distances because he was sired by My Friend Paul. He admits to some puzzlement that a horse capable of winning four races over a distance of 1600 m should be unable to sire anything but straight sprinters in New Zealand.

Mr Conway would have done well to extend his search a little wider. He is left with a shaky

argument when he ignores the fact that My Friend Paul sired the V.R.C. Derby winner, Big Print. He also appears to be precipitate in concluding that influences for stamina in the distaff side of Gaffa’s family have been bred out “in barely a couple of generations.” Gaffa’s dam, Kara Sea, won at 1600 m. She was by Ribotlight, sire of some stout stayers including Ribaldo, out of Seaend, which did not win beyond the mile of the Dunedin Guineas but ran a more than respectable third in Algaion’s New Zealand Derby. Seaend was sired by Able Seaman, which begat a New Zealand Cup winner in Quite Able, out of Surprise Ending, winner of the New Zealand St Leger and Great Northern Oaks. Dave Kerr, owner-trainer of Gaffa, has, with quiet emphasis, made the point that his young star will develop his full powers

when he steps up to the Derby distance. His opinion becomes all the more valuable because it is based on comparisons he is in the best position to make with Clansman, the horse he trained to win the New Zealand Two Thousand Guineas and run fourth in the New Zealand Derby last season.

Differences of opinion are what racing is all about. The wide range of difference, as reflected in the Clyde Conway judgment on Gaffa, and in South Islanders’ opinions based on first-hand experience will add stature to one or more of the important spring classics, perhaps, first of all, the Wellington Guineas next month. And then of course, the New Zealand Two Thousand Guineas in which, last year, Clansman met formidable opposition only from Our Flight, a filly whose sire was based in and whose dam was bred in the South Island.