Lamps to light dark continent

Press, 6 August 1983, Page 16

Lamps to light dark continent

From “The Economist,” London

Nigeria has ordered 400,000 hurricane lamps, in an attempt to preserve democracy in Africa. They will be needed to count the votes in the series of elections which ■ begins ■. today. The first, question about this exercise in democracy by Africa’s biggest country (about 80 million people) is whether the poll can be reasonably free from rigging and rioting: in a broader sense, whether a multiparty, western-type democratic system can ever work in Africa. The hurricane lamps give a gleam of hope. They represent a decision by the federal electoral commission (Fedeco) to count the votes in the polling booths, not transport the ballot-boxes to more central tallying places. The decision is disputed, and the subject of litigation.

Opponents of the Government say that moving ballot boxes around invites rigging. Its supporters say that counting votes in 157,976 booths, some temporary structures in rural areas without electricity, invites chaos.

Fedeco, more or less agreeing with the opposition, has decided that two or three hurricane lamps in each booth will help. On the whole, the chances of rigging are receding.

Other problems are not. To supervise activity in those 157,976 booths, Nigeria has only 90,000 policemen. The President refuses to use the army to fill the gap; the 13 years of military rule that ended in 1979 are not remembered with affection.

So far pre-election violence has killed more than 60 people. The

fact that Fedeco has made a complete muddle of revising the voters’ roll increases the tension.

The first election is designed to choose the president, with a runoff 10 days later if need be. Four more elections follow at weekly intervals: for the 19 state governorships, the senate, the house of representatives, and the state assemblies: the same 157,976 booths will be used for each, if they are still standing. Who will win, assuming that riot does not stop play? There are no reliable opinion polls, and there have been no by-elections since the 1979 general election (thanks to Fedeco’s failings).

In 1979 Alhaji Shehu Shagari won 34 per cent of the presidential vote, spread fairly evenly through the country, against 29 per cent for his rival, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, mainly among the Yorubas. These

two are again the leading contenders.

The President’s support has been chipped away in some areas, and Chief Awolowo’s has spread. The odds are nevertheless that President Shagari will be re-elected, but the odds lengthen if he does not win outright on the first vote. A first-round winner must get a plurality of votes overall, plus a quarter of the vote in two thirds of the 19 states. Otherwise there must be a run-off, which would almost certainly be a Shagari-Awolowo two-horse race. The result of that is more uncertain, and the risk of violence bigger.

Of the six registered parties, three have little importance. The Nigeria Advance party, a new group led by a Lagos barrister, Mr Tunji Braithwaite, has a radical programme which includes a promise to abolish rats and mosquitoes; it will win nothing. The Great Nigeria People’s party, founded by the wealthy Alhaji Waziri Ibrahim mostly for reasons of self-satisfaction, won Gongola and his home state of Borno in 1979 but has since fragmented beyond repair. The People’s Redemption party has been hit by the death in April of its founder, a respected radical, Aminu Kano. It still has a following in Kano state, but not much else.

The big three start with President Shagari’s National party of Nigeria (N.P.N.). This takes its main strength from the northern Hausa-Fulani establishment, but in 1979 won seven states stretching down into the south, including Benue, Kwara, Cross River and Rivers.

Since 1979 it has lost ground in these four but may win this time in Bendel; it will also profit from the decline of the two smaller parties in Borno, Kaduna and Kano. Support from the former Biafran leader, Mr Emeka Ojukwu, could bring it the needed 25 per cent in Anambra and Imo.

The Unity party of Nigeria (U.P.N.), led by Chief Awolowo, is dominant in the west, where it won five states in 1979. It may lose Bendel this time but could win Kwara, and it has gained some handy support in parts of the north. It hopes to win Gongola and will also profit in Cross River from the N.P.N.’s disarray. The Nigerian People’s party (N.P.P.), led by former President

Nnamdi Azikiwe, won the Ibo heartland states of Anambra and Imo in 1979, and Plateau to the north. It has since made inroads elsewhere in the north, and hopes to win in Kano and Benue. Issues matter almost not at all. Political discussion in Nigeria is concerned wholly with personalities, local and ethnic loyalties and the re-fighting of political battles such as the 1967-70 civil war over Biafra.

The manifestoes are virtually interchangeable. All are in favour of a mixed economy, agricultural expansion and more education. The differences are details: the N.P.N. is in favour of opening a boiled egg at the sharp end, the U.P.N. recommends the blunt end, as it were.

President Shagari is the N.P.N.’s big asset. He has come across since 1979 as incorruptible, courteous and determined to try to be an all-Nigerian leader. He has also been slow to fire incompetents, and a little naive in the hands of the tough professionals around him; but he himself obviously believes in legality and freedom.

On the other hand, much of the rest of the ruling party suffers from the corruption endemic in Africa; and Nigeria’s economic mess, though not entirely the party’s fault, will cost it votes. The U.P.N. is harmed by the abrasiveness of its leader, Chief Awolowo. He is hated by the Ibos of former Biafra (“starvation is a weapon of war,” he once said in the Biafra conflict) and distrusted in parts of the north. In a run-off, many Nigerians would jib at voting for “Awo”. His party, however, has benefited from some good performances by its state governors, notably Alhaji Lateef Jakande of Lagos state. Nobody in Nigeria is assuming that the election will pass without violence. This could even be on such a scale that the army would have to step in again. Yet the sturdier optimists are looking forward to the 1987 election.

Chief Awolowo and Mr Azikiwe, who will then be octogenarians, will be out of it. Mr Shagari is not allowed to stand for a third term. A new generation of leaders, and a new party line-up, could bring an easing of ancient quarrels. Meanwhile, a lamp is being lit for 1983. — Copyright, “The Economist,” London.