Personal sales to double this year?

Press, 19 July 1983, Page 25

Personal sales to double this year?

An Australian research company forecasts that New Zealand personal-com-puter sales will double this year, and that the 1982 total will be tripled in 1984. IDC Research Australia, Pty, Ltd, recently surveyed representatives of systems houses, computer suppliers, . 3 business analysts, and the trade press to make predictions about the “single user desktop” computer market in this country. It estimates that 11,250 such systems were shipped to customers in 1982 and predicts shipments of 22,325 this year. Next year it estimates 37,200 single-user desktop systems will be shipped. The company predicts shipments of 86,300 units in 1987. Of these, 66,500 will be in the under-$2OOO price bracket. However, the company cautions: “With the market still in its formative stages, together with the political and economic uncertainty, forecasting beyond 1984 is subject to review.

“Major variations may or may not occur if sales tax is reduced or if the wage freeze is not lifted in early 1984,” says IDC Research. “In summary, it can be said that the New Zealand market is still a very young market (about three years old) with both economic and financial restraints affecting its development. “With the peculiar geography and population distribution it requires a substantial number of sales outlets to reach the market and these are currently being wooed by many suppliers.” In the under-$2OOO price bracket, IDC Research estimates that the BBC Microcomputer will capture 30 per cent of the shipments this year, followed by Sinclair (20 per cent), Commodore (17 per cent), Dick Smith (13 per cent), Epson (10 per cent), and Micro Bee (7 per cent). It predicts similar market shares next year, Commo-

dore rising to 20 per cent and Dick Smith dropping to 8 per cent. In the $2OOO to $15,000 price range, the estimates for this year are Apple (31 per cent), Commodore (29 per cent), IBM (14 per cent) and ICL (9 per cent). Next year these should change to Apple (29 per cent), Commodore (24 per cent), IBM (12 per cent), ICL (7 per cent) and DEC (8 per cent), says IDC Research.