Cities of the future

Press, 29 June 1983, Page 13

Cities of the future

By

MICHAEL LITTLEJOHNS,

Reuter, in New York

Almost half of humanity will live in urban communities by the year 2000 and giant cities will be a feature of the developing countries, the United Nations predicts. There will be no fewer than 45 such cities, mostly in Asia, whereas as recently as 1950 Shanghai was the only third world city with a population of more than five million, according to the United Nations Fund for Population Activities. Mexico City, also in a developing country, is now the world’s largest conurbation, with population estimates ranging from 13 million to 16 million. Fund executive director, Rafael Salas, says United Nations projections show that the population of the world’s cities has been growing at nearly three per cent a year, much faster than the world’s population as a whole, for which the rate is 1.7 a year. Migrants to the great cities are often young or educated, those very people most valuable for rural areas, Mr Salas says. The official also speaks of an unprecedented increase in the number of undocumented aliens, of whom there are estimated to be four to five million in North America, two to three million in Latin America, perhaps 1,500,000 in Europe, and up to 500,000 in the Middle East. “International migration involves a substantial proportion of the global work force, but it is being conducted with an almost complete lack of order and regulation,” Mr Salas adds. It is to be hoped that an international code to ensure humane treatment for migrants would soon emerge, as recommended by the United Nations General Assembly in 1979. Refugee movements across national borders, which Mr Salas describes as unplanned, abrupt, and

often tragic, account for nearly 14 million people as well as for half of all international migration since the First World War. Africa, alone, probably has six million refugees. Sharp differences of opinion and strong emotions still cloud discussion of the relationship between population, resources, the environment, and development, but most people agree that population is the central factor, he says. However, that could not be held solely responsible for either the deterioration of the natural environment or for depleting global resources. “The primary concern is what is known as 'carrying capacity',” Mr Salas adds. "How many people can ultimately be supported by the global biological and ecological system and at what level." A joint study by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation and his own agency found that all regions except SouthWest Asia would be able to feed themselves in the year 2000, assuming they improve crop varieties and use moderate amounts of pesticides and fertilisers. Even so. under a worst-case extrapolation, the study found that at the turn of the century 65 developing countries would have 441 million more people than they could feed from domestic production. Of this excess population, 55 per cent would be in Africa. “Even with high levels of inputs, there would still be an excess of population over food capacity of 47 million in 19 countries. Yet by the year 2000 the population of the world will be only 6.1 billion. “It will probably continue to rise for another century until it eventually stabilises at about 10.2 billion. The long-term implications for food supply can be imagined.” Any attempt to bring down birth rates will be defeated if poverty and malnourishment continue to exist on a large scale in developing countries, Mr Salas concluded.