New Welsh wizard for Labour?

Press, 28 June 1983, Page 20

New Welsh wizard for Labour?

From ‘The Economist’, London

Mr Michael Foot is going as leader of the British Labour Party; Mr Denis Healey, his deputy, has given up hope of succeeding him. Mr Tony Benn, defeated by the electors of Bristol, cannot be a candidate. Two of Labour’s surviving exministers, Mr Peter Shore (the Liverpudlian with the lock of hair) and Mr Roy Hattersley (the stubby Yorkshire essayist) look like alsorans, so far. Mr Neil Kinnock, the talkative, gingerhaired, fairly Left-wing Welshman with no ministerial experience, is favourite to become the Leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition come October. The new leader and deputy leader of the Labour Party will

emerge from the electoral college devised at a special conference two-and-a-half years ago; it was one of the follies that drove the Social Democrats to defection. It gives the (mostly very Leftwing) constituency parties 30 per cent of the votes, Labour members of Parliament another 30 per cent, and the affiliated trade unions 40 per cent. The only election under this newish system was for the deputy leadership two years ago, when Mr Benn came within a whisker of beating Mr Healey. Mr Kinnock abstained in that contest, which is one reason why some of the Bennite Left of the party distrust him. But most Labour activists are shattered by

the party’s, and Mr Benn's, defeat. They will keep their heads down and vote Kinnock. In the Parliamentary section. Mr Kinnock will certainly do better than Mr Benn did two years ago. After the General Election about half of Labour M.P.s are on the Left. Some of them might vote on the first ballot — more as a gesture than from conviction — for Mr Eric Heffer, the fourth contender. But they would shift to Kinnock in a run-off. Mr Kinnock has already got healthy blocks of support from union leaders. First to throw its weight behind him was Mr Clive Jenkins’s white collar union (with 147,000 votes), which actually nominated him for the leadership.

Not far behind was the Left-led Transport Workers' Union - which sponsors Mr Kinnock, which dumped 1.25 million votes into his lap, and plans no further consultation with its members. The national executives of the Communcation Workers’ Union (193.000). the National Union oi Railwaymen (170,000 votes) and the Miners’ Union (235,000 votes) would like to see Mr Kinnock as top dog, but will (however unwillingly) consult their members. So will the Electricians’ Union (180,000 votes) whose leader, Mr Frank Chapple, is openly hostile to Mr Hattersley and privately supports Mr Shore. The Hattersley union fan club is

relatively small. The Engineering Workers’ Union (850,000 votes) has nominated him for the leadership The General and Municipal Workers' Union (650,000 votes) will probably do the same. Mr Hattersley will also pick up some smaller unions, but faces a tough fight. Don’t count him out, yet. Unless all sections of the party become convinced that a move back in the direction of the Cal-laghan-Wilson years is the only way to save the party from political oblivion — which seems improbable — Mr Kinnock should win. A lot (one third) of union members vote Tory these days, but they will not be consulted in Labour’s leadership election.