P.L.O. at the crossroads

Press, 19 February 1983, Page 14

P.L.O. at the crossroads

After the destruction of the Palestine Liberation Organisation as an effective fighting force in Lebanon, the P.L.O. has not many options left in the short term in its desire to secure from Israel a place to live. One of the options is the plan announced by President Reagan in September. This entails a link between the Palestinians and Jordan and an autonomy plan in areas now held by Israel. The Palestinians know that Israel has rejected the Reagan plan and they have no guarantee that, even if the Palestinians accepted it, the Americans would insist upon Israel's acceptance of it.

Unless the P.L.O. holds on to its dream - to many it seems an obsession or, at the very least, a fantasy — of winning a war against Israel, the P.L.O. has to accept that American pressure on Israel is the only way in which the Middle East problem will be settled. To reject the Reagan plan is not only the rejection of one of the only options left, but must be seen to be spurning the efforts of the only country that can help the Palestinians. Mr Yasser Arafat, the leader of the P.L.0., understands this very well. Just after Mr Reagan announced his plan, an Arab summit meeting at Fez, Morocco, found positive elements in President Reagan’s plan and came up with suggestions for peace itself. Mr Arafat knows that a number of groups within the umbrella grouping that is the P.L.O. want to reject the Reagan plan outright and he has called together the Palestine National Council. This council is the closest that the Palestinians have to a parliament in which

they can meet to thrash out the problems. There is, as yet, no sign that his views on how to respond to the Reagan plan are going to carry the day. The question will be that, if they do not carry the day, what will be the future of the P.L.O. and of Mr Arafat himself? If the meeting of the Palestine National Council adopted the views of those described as hardliners — those who would reject the Reagan plan — the movement could easily be split. The rejection of the plan would almost certainly lead to a return to outright military attacks against Israel. Mr Arafat has lived through years of fighting Israel militarily and diplomatically and is sceptical of the ability of Arabs to'unite against Israel. He also knows that time is not on his side. The hope that the P.L.O. has is that it will have a homeland on the West Bank and Gaza. It would like more, but this seems to be the maximum achievable. Israel is building settlements on the West Bank at such a rate that it will have effectively annexed the West Bank within a short period. If the P.L.O. somehow turns to open war against Israel again, the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Begin, will have the excuse he has been looking for to make annexation of the West Bank official. Mr Arafat understands that the P.L.O. is at the crossroads; the question that hangs over the Algiers meeting of the Palestine National Council is whether he will be able to persuade those attending to seize what may be the last chance to obtain a homeland in the West Bank and Gaza.