China, Russia, and the U.S.

Press, 26 November 1982, Page 16

China, Russia, and the U.S.

The triangular relationship between the Soviet Union, the United States, and China has been shaken by the death of President Brezhnev and it is not yet clear what it will look like when the dust in the Soviet Politburo settles. The visit, just announced, of the American Secretary of State, Mr Shultz, to China next February will probably be a very significant part of the process which will determine any change in relationships. The February visit is early enough as the planning for such high-level visits goes. If the United States were really concerned that China was moving rapidly towards a friendly relationship with the Soviet Union, a high-level visit would at least be sought even sooner. ' Some change in the bitter relationship between China and the Soviet Union is under way. The fact that Huang Hua, then the Chinese Foreign Minister, and a man of very high rank in China, visited the Soviet Union for the funeral of President Brezhnev is significant in itself. He received special attention from the new general secretary of the Soviet Communist Party, Mr Andropov. Warmer words were exchanged between the two countries than have been heard for many years. The Soviet Union has sought better relations with China for some time; China has let it be understood that the Chinese would judge the Soviet intentions by deeds rather than words. Why, then, did Mr Huang Hua seem to be softening China’s position?

Various interpretations have been put on the fact that immediately after Mr Huang’s return to Peking he was replaced as Foreign Minister. However, it might be more accurate to regard Mr Huang’s departure as retirement rather than as a dismissal. His departure had been expected for a number of months and his successor was known. When the Prime Minister of Thailand visited China before the Brezhnev funeral he was introduced to the man who was to be Mr Huang’s successor. Mr Huang’s replacement cannot be assumed to be a considered rejection by Peking of the apparent responsiveness of its Foreign Minister to Mr Andropov’s warmth.

Moscow can hardly take offence at the visit of Mr Shultz to Peking because Mr Shultz and the American Vice-President, Mr Bush, went to Moscow for Mr Brezhnev’s funeral and told Mr Andropov that President Reagan would be prepared to hold a summit meeting with him. Mr Andropov might well feel that he is being wooed from two sides. The brief exchanges after the funeral in Moscow have probably been overtaken already by President Reagan’s two-edged statement this week. His proposal to deploy new missiles and his invitation to the Soviet Union to take steps to avoid accidental war have probably put Mr Bush’s message to the edge of Mr Andropov’s desk.