German eyes turn to the West again

Press, 28 October 1982, Page 16

German eyes turn to the West again

By

MICHAEL FARR,

in Bonn for the “Daily Telegraph”

Chancellor Kohl in his first few weeks in office has reintroduced into the political vocabulary words which have not been heard in West Germany for some time: “Westpolitik” and "Vaterland."

Neither need translating. The first shows the new Chancellor's complete commitment to the Western Alliance, the second his unashamed patriotism, belief in German qualities and reluctance to accept the division of his country.

With Herr Genscher, the Liberal leader, back as Foreign Minister, a position he held for eight years under Herr Schmidt, and continuity guaranteed, West German foreign policy under the new, perhaps more inward-looking, conserva-tive-led Government is expected to show a difference in style rather than substance. Already at his first press conference as Chancellor, Dr Kohl spoke of “Westpolitik.” After more than 10 years of “Ostpolitik” it was a less easy word to assimilate, despite the fact that “Westpolitik” was, as Dr Kohl pointed out, an achievement of an earlier con-servative-liberal Government some 30 years ago. It is an inheritance the new constellation in Bonn intends to cherish.

To demonstrate this, Dr Kohl’s Government will make a conscious effort to improve relations with Washington. “Without the protection and umbrella of the United States in the past 30 years West Germany would not be what it is today,” Dr Kohl told that same press conference. He added a qualification: “We want friendship and partnership. but not dependence."

there will be no slavish following of Washington, and Dr Kohl's resistance to American attempts to block the Siberian-West European gas pipeline will be as stiff as Herr Schmidt’s was.

Yet with the solid backing of his party, Dr Kohl will not dither over deploying American Cruise and Pershing-2

rockets in West Germany if the Geneva arms limitation talks fail, even though he will have to reckon with a vociferous peace movement.

While tight budget constraints will make increased defence spending difficult, Dr Kohl’s Defence Minister, Herr Worner, will do what he can to boost the efficiency and morale of the armed forces. The Kremlin need not be unduly alarmed, though, for Dr Kohl’s Government, well aware that “Ostpolitik” is popular at home and of its commitment to a General Election next March, will not abandon Bonn's good relations with the Eastern bloc.

Herr Genscher saw 16 Foreign Ministers at the United Nations this month, among them Mr Gromyko and his East German counterpart, Herr Fischer, and assured them of the new Government's desire to be a “solid reliable partner.”

It was noted in Bonn that Dr Kohl found time to see Mr Semyonov, the Soviet ambassador, on an exceptionally busy day last week. The next day he had talks with Mr Solomentsev of the Politburo and premier of the Soviet Russian Republic.

The Russian contacts show clearly that Dr Kohl wants to pursue a foreign policy of the centre, though he may be reluctant to take on Hen Schmidt’s role as a mediator. In a crisis such as the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan or the military crackdown in Poland. Dr Kohl would want to be seen to be firmly in the Western camp.

One could not imagine Dr Kohl continuing, as Herr Schmidt did, last December’s East-West German summit in East Germany on the very day that martial law was imposed in Poland. Herr Schmidt did so because he believed that confrontation with the East could make things worse for the Poles, quite apart from ruining carefully-fostered inter-Ger-man relations. In the words of one Western

diplomat: “The immediate appearance of Western unity would be better with Kohl than with Schmidt."

One of Herr Schmidt’s great advantages over Dr Kohl was his considerable international expertise. With virtually no previous foreign experience, the new Chancellor is trying to catch up with a crash course of foreign fixtures. The day his Government was installed, he went to dinner with President Mitterrand at the Elysee Palace, and the next day he flew to Brussels. Last week he was in London to see Mrs Thatcher, and two days later held a Franco-Ger-man summit in Bonn, to be followed this week by its An-glo-German equivalent. In midNovember Dr Kohl will fly to Washington to see President Reagan. Although Dr Kohl is not yet well known in Britain, his political complexion is more appealing to Mrs Thatcher than Herr Schmidt’s and the new leadership in Bonn may well prove easier for her to deal with.

While keen to establish good relations with London, FrancoGerman relations will be as much of a corner-stone of the new Government's foreign policy as they were with Herr Schmidt.

The special relationship between Bonn and Paris dates from the era of Dr Adenauer, like Dr Kohl a Christian Democratic Chancellor, and General De Gaulle. The most immediate result of the rapport with Paris sought by the new Bonn Government will concern defence and specifically the development of joint defence projects.

Dr Kohl is unlikely to have either the time or inclination to try to sort out the thorny issue of the Community budget by next March when he goes to the polls.

Britain, which with West Germany is the only net contributor, has been pressing for an “equitable budget,” but Dr Kohl may not press too hard.

too soon for fear of upsetting the French.

A limit to West Germany’s budget contributions would, however, offer badly needed relief to Bonn’s hard-pressed finances. For while the new Government tries to win its spurs in foreign policy, it will have to devote most of its attention to problems at home, and in particular mounting unemployment. The economic problems, which finally accounted for the defection of Herr Genscher's liberals to the conservative side after 13 years of collaboration with the Social Democrats, are even greater than the new Government feared.

A report published this week by the Government's panel of economic advisers, the socalled Five Wise Men, predicts that unemployment, already at a record 1.8 million, could reach 2.5 million by the end of next year and would average 2.25 million for 1983 as a whole.

Economic growth, which has been non-existent this year, could reach a modest one per cent in 1983 compared with earlier estimates of three per cent.

As a result the very economic quandary which brought down Herr Schmidt's Government seems certain to be magnified — a steep increase in unemployment payments accompanied by lower-than-ex-pected tax receipts, resulting in an ever-widening budget deficit.

Dr Kohl, who has declared that bringing down unemployment and righting the economy are the first priority of his Government, faces an impossible task if he hopes to achieve results by the March elections.

With 4.6 million foreigners living in West Germany and xenophobic sentiment rising with unemployment, Dr Kohl may, however, win some votes with his ideas for repatriating foreign workers.

A policy document drawn up by the new coalition partners proposes new cash incentives for foreigners who leave the country: lump sums in place of child and unemployment benefits and the easier repayment of pension contributions.

Dr Kohl has said that a "fair and humane" w T ay must be found to reduce the number of foreign workers in West Germany.

Dr Kohl, though not one of West Germany's most engaging politicians, has a number of qualities, including being a good team leader, a purposeful, tenacious manager interested in results and efficiency.

With his badly-divided liberal coalition partner facing the prospect of electoral elimination in March and the conservative parties by no means certain of an absolute majority, he will need all his skills if he is to be rqore than an interim Chancellor.