Change of Chancellor

Press, 11 October 1982, Page 20

Change of Chancellor

The manoeuvre by which Mr Helmut Kohl became Chancellor in West Germany was Parliamentary and legitimate, though it was the first time that West Germany has acquired a new Chancellor in this fashion. The Free Democrats, switched their allegiance to the Christian Democrats, leaving Mr Helmut Schmidt with a minority Government of Social Democrats. In what Mr Kohl described as a “constructive vote of no-confidence,” Mr Kohl was voted in to become Chancellor and Mr Schmidt was voted out. An early election was thus averted, though an early election was favoured by Mr Schmidt and by Mr Franz Josef Strauss, leader of the Christian Social Union, as the more Rightwing version of the Christian Democrats is called in Bavaria. It was also favoured by the comparatively new party, the Greens, whose political star appears to be rising, and probably by the West German voters themselves. The immediate price that Mr Kohl had ■to pay for the allegiance of the Free Democrats was to hold an election later. He has set March 6 as the date.

The full price that the Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats, will pay for their manoeuvre may be high. The state of Hesse had an election after the Free Democrats left the coalition with the Social Democrats and before the Parliamentary vote that ousted Mr Schmidt. The Christian Democrats had expected to win an over-all majority. They got 52 seats, which was one less than they had held previously, compared with the Social Democrats’ 49. This left the Greens holding the balance of power with nine seats. The Free Democrats failed to get the 5 per cent of the vote required to have representation in the Bundestag. The Social Democrat leader in Hesse plans to continue with a minority Government. The Hesse election result is being widely interpreted as punishment to the Free Democrats for deserting Mr Schmidt and as an expression of disapproval about the goings-on in Bonn. It is also being seen as a remarkable revival for the Social Democrats, who had appeared to be flagging.

The Free Democrats wanted an election later rather than sooner. Having seen the result in Hesse they have even more cause to worry. Mr Strauss was not concerned about the annihilation of the Free Democrats and believed that the combination of Mr Kohl’s Christian Democrats and his own Christian Social Union would win an absolute majority and he would hope for more portfolios for the C.S.U. His confidence may well be shaken by the result in Hesse. The new coalition has barely five months to establish itself in power and to win over the voters. They will be five difficult months for Mr Kohl. The economy will prove a fearsome challenge and Mr Strauss, who is a more forceful person than Mr Kohl, may present a leadership challenge of his own.

The new West German Government is not likely to adopt many policies that are radically different from those of the old Social Democrat-Free Democrat coalition. Cuts in welfare spending may occur; some taxes may be increased; and investment that creates employment will receive subsidies. Some hardening of views against the Soviet Union may be discerned, though this will not really mean an abandonment of the Ostpolitik, the extension of friendly overtures to East Europe. A decision has already been taken to press ahead with the gas pipeline from Siberia to West Germany.

The changes may be in the political allegiances within West Germany. The Social Democrats may reach an understanding with the Greens in Hesse. The Greens are strongly opposed to the installation of a new missile system in West Germany and are idealists in matters of the environment. Federally, the Social Democrats may either become less committed to the new missiles so that they may co-operate with the Greens, or they may try to woo supporters of the Greens to vote for Social Democrats. This, too, would probably mean a changing of views over the nuclear missiles. West Germany is at the heart of a divided Europe. Before March 6, the strains that it is under are bound to become more obvious.