Lull in the South Atlantic

Press, 30 June 1982, Page 20

Lull in the South Atlantic

Argentina appears to have acknowledged, rather than formally accepted, Security Council Resolution 502, which called for negotiations and an end; to hostilities over the Falklands. The surrender on the Falkland Islands was one thing; a clear pronouncement that the I war is over, and that Argentina will not fight Britain for the islands, had still to be made. A newspaper that generally reflects \the' Argentinian Government’s views has that a formal cessation of hostilities has been accepted. The Argentinian (Government has not confirmed or denied the report. Britain has said that it will lift air and sea exclusion zones in the South Atlantic, and economic sanctions against Argentina, once it has “positive indications” that Argentina has accepted an end to the hostilities. The report in\ the “Clarin” newspaper is an indication. Britain is unlikely to decide that a newspaper report alone is sufficient grounds for assuming no further Argentinian : attacks will be made against. British forces or the islands. '

Once it is accepted that the war is really Over, Britain will send home the Argentinian officers it is holding. Argentina has already released on bail the three British journalists who were arrested on charges of spying in Argentina. With a nod from the new Argentinian Government the three might be able to get out of Argentina without further imprisonment. Argentina has shown no willingness to renounce its claim to the islands it calls the Malvinas. It is probably more than the political life of the President-designate is worth to renounce the claim, but Argentinian policy is likely to be pursued, for the foreseeable future, by means other than military. The sovereignty of the islands has been established in the meantime by a military test; in the longer term the question of sovereignty remains to be settled.

The effects of the defeat on Argentina have still to emerge. Plans are afopt to lift

the restrictions on political parties and to see a return to democratic rule. The world has many examples of military rulers who have espoused similar views just after they assume office, but whose timetables are not met. General Reynaldo Bignone, the Argentinian President-designate, appears to be serious. He says he will lift the restriction on political parties as soon as he takes office. That would be an encouraging gesture. If the country reformed itself to the extent that political critics no longer disappeared, and if the Argentinian Government accepted that Argentinians should have political and civil rights, then Argentina would enjoy more ready international acceptance. Questions about whose fault it was that Britain was not prepared for the Argentinan invasion of the Falklands are being tackled in earnest in Britain. The resignation of Lord . Carrington, then Foreign Secretary, shortly after the invasion, has not stilled all the questions. The British Prime Minister, Mrs Thatcher, is reported to regard the Foreign Office with displeasure, but it is not clear whether she does this because she blames the office for the lack of warning about the invasion, or whether she opposes the voices that urge negotiations about the long-term future of the Falklands.

Questions- about the effectiveness of weapons, about the materials used in ! the construction of ships, and about the relative merits in the modern world, of navies and air forces, have still to be debated in Britain and elsewhere. Other Third World countries may read from the Falklands episode the lessen that a country can attack a major Power provided it has adequate weapons. Or the lesson may be that no country can afford sufficient modem weapons to tackle a major Power. There is a grim reminder in the Middle East that after, the Falklands crisis the resort to war as an instrument of policy has not been abandoned, even temporarily.