Iran’s religious threat

Press, 4 June 1982, Page 12

Iran’s religious threat

Iran’s threat to Iraq and the rest of the Gulf is a military one but more important is the appeal it may have to Shi’ite Muslims throughout the area. The Islamic revolution in Iran was a Shi-ite revolution. This schism originated in a dispute among Arab theologians in Iraq but was to become the mark of Persian religious identity. The Arab countries have a substantial number of Shi’ite Muslims; they predominate in numbers in Iraq by three to two, but Iraq’s rulers are mainly Sunni Muslims. Before the Iran-Iraq war started Iranian Shi’ites managed to stir up trouble among Iraq’s Shi’ites, which led to Iraq's expulsion of 100,000 of these Shi’ites to Iran. This is one of the issues which will have to be settled if the war does come to an end.

Various allegiances pull the people of the Gulf countries, and one of these is ethnic, emphasised by the fact that Arabs talk about one Arab nation. President Saddam Hussein of Iraq justified the war against Iran as an Arab war against the Persians. Another allegiance .comes from the schisms of Islam. The Shi’ites tend to be poorer and the religion is essentially one which has a mass appeal. Sunnis may hold power in a number of countries but they treat their Shi’ite people with some care. The eastern area of Saudi Arabia, for example, holds mostly Shi’ites, who have won the right to practise their beliefs. The peoples of the Gulf will also give their allegiance to their countries. The various leaders of the Arab Gulf countries try to solve any conflicts of allegiance in a number of ways. In Iraq, for example, the difference between Shi’ites and Sunnis is played down. Emphasis is given to being

an Iraqi — an Iraqi Muslim by all means, but not a Shi’ite or Sunni Muslim.

Iran would be more likely to rely on using its. position as the leading Shi’ite Muslim country to influence others than to use its military might. Such activities seem to have begun already in Bahrain, in Saudi Arabia, and possibly in Kuwait. Countries that have Sunni societies are looking in alarm at what is happening, but it is not yet clear how. successful the appeal of Shi’ism will be. The effect so far appears to be to give greater emphasis .to Islam within countries. There is a revival but it is not necessarily Shi'ite in content. Conservative and strict societies are becoming more conservative and stricter. The forces of liberalism have been set back.

The difficult, aspect to assess is whether the Shi’ites in a number of countries could challenge the political order. The situation probably varies from country to country. Because the Shi’ites seek widespread popular support they could have a powerful influence. However, though no Arab country has anything like a democratic structure, certain governments rely more obviously on popular support. Some leaders like to present themselves as close to the people, and in such countries the popularity of the leader might counteract the popularity of a religion. Some of the authoritarian governments of the region which do not go out of their way to court popularity may face greater unrest. Ayatollah Khomeiny rose to be Iran’s leader through a religious fervour. He is an old man. There is no reason to believe that he will abandon his liking of religious fervour or make distinctions between the spread of religious enthusiasm and the spread of the influence of Iran.