THE PRESS TUESDAY, MARCH 16, 1982. Elections and C.E.R.

Press, 16 March 1982, Page 22

THE PRESS TUESDAY, MARCH 16, 1982. Elections and C.E.R.

A General Election in Australia before one is due at the end-of next year is more than a remote possibility. An election now seems unlikely, because the Government has been heavily defeated in a by-election and because of the Victorian state election next month. By-elections are not necessarily good indicators of the vote in a. General Election, but the Victorian state election would probably 'show what the voters were thinking. The Australian Prime Minister (Mr Fraser) comes from Victoria and thus has a personal stake in the election there. But even the Victorian election need not be a sound indication because the coalition has ruled in Victoria since the split in the Australian Labour Party in 1955 when the Democratic Labour Party broke away in z that state. The coalition of Liberals and the Country Party has had a long rule in Victoria and if it were defeated few would be surprised. If it held on by even a very small minority the Federal Government could well consider that a victory and be the sooner prepared to face the voters itself. A Victorian state victory for the coalition would not only enhance the hopes of the Government but would strengthen the position of Mr Fraser within his own party. He will take both factors into account.

The -most likely time for a General Election in Australia is after the Budget is brought down, probably in August. If Mr Fraser thought he could win an election towards the end of this year, he might seek to put another two years on to the life of his Government. Whether the comparative frequency with which Australians go to the polls would mean that the next Parliament would see out the full term is another question.

The strong possibility that Australia will hold a General Election before the end of this year has some serious implications for New Zealand. In spite of the confidence of the Prime Minister (Mr Muldoon) that the new trade agreement; Closer Economic Relations, will be introduced at the beginning of next year there are reasons for thinking otherwise. The prospect of Australia becoming embroiled in its internal politics means that it will be difficult to get the attention of politicians over the new trade agreement, which, after all, is of lesser moment to Australia than it is to New Zealand. Without the attention of politicians there is little hope that anything satisfactory can be concluded. A possibility exists — though not a strong one — that Closer Economic Relations will become an election issue in Australia. It all depends on whether a politician from a dairy electorate can marshal support against the

agreement. What is more likely is. that there Will be a strengthening of resolve .not to be lenient to New Zealand in the negotiations. Should a Labour Government be formed in Australia then it is almost certain that a long process of discussions and negotiations would occur before an agreement was reached. Labour governments are often more portectionist than conservative' governments and this, too, might interfere with the concluding of an agreement.

The domestic politics of Australia are only one of the factors holding up progress on the agreement. Another cause is that industry groups and politicians in New Zealand are generally, better informed on the content of the C.E.R. than are their Australian counterparts. Some Australians have called for more time to consult within Australia. At the same time it is not true to say that all outstanding issues have been resolved. The Australian side, for example, has not been satisfied on access to New Zealand. The question of import licensing still rankles with Australian exporters as does New Zealand’s system of export tax incentives. Some long-term phasing out of import licensing is what is being sought as well as measures to equalise export incentives. .

The thrusting of the Springbok tour of New Zealand to the fore at the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting might well have been forgiven if not forgotten if Mr Muldoon were now more outspoken against sports contacts when Australia faces the possibility of a boycott by African countries of the Commonwealth Games at Brisbane. Viewed generously Mr Muldoon’s statements at Melbourne could be seen in the context of a General Election which he had to face later that year. But Mr Muldbon has won his election and it might be his turn to be generous. A forthright statement against future sports contacts, even allowing for the Government’s stand on principle, .should be possible. Having done that, it could be said that he had taken an action which could be clearly seen as an effort to get Australia out of the predicament — a predicament brought about by the actions of New Zealand. It will be necessary for Mr Muldoon to make the statement himself because, no-one would be confident that Mr Muldoon would not distance himself from something another Minister said, including anything said by the Minister of Foreign Affairs (Mr Cooper) while he is in Canberra. Mr Muldoon could now influence the course of New Zealand’s relations with Australia whether Australia is about to have one of its numerous elections or not.