Chernenko at Brezhnev’s right hand

Press, 10 March 1982, Page 20

Chernenko at Brezhnev’s right hand

By

JOHN MORRISION

in Moscow

Western students of the Kremlin balance of power are paying close attention to a stocky, white-haired figure who is acquiring increasing influence- as right-hand man to President Leonid Brezhnev.

In the mysterious world of Kremlin politics, one of the few indisputable facts of recent years has been the rise of Mr Konstantin U. Chernenko, Mr Brezhnev's closest adviser and staff assistant for threedecades. A Politburo member for barely three years, he is now believed by most analysts to have become in effect the . number two figure in the Communist party since the death in January of veteran ideologist Mikhail SusloV. The death of Mr Suslov, a central- figure, in the Politburo lineup, has injected a sudden element of change into the frozen immobility of top-level politics under Mr Brezhnev. Since his death Moscow has buzzed , with a variety of colourful rumours suggesting instability and infighting at the top. Hard evidence has been lacking, but there is a pervasive feeling among both foreign and Soviet observers that the Brezhnev era, one of unprecedented tranquillity, is drawing to its close. Mr Brezhnev, whose 75th birthday was celebrated with much pomp and circumstance last December, is more than ever the Kremlin’s undoubted number one. Soviet officials discount any.suggestion that he

’ might retire from his posts of Party’ General Secretary and Head of State, held -since 1964 and 1977 respectively. ' ' Mr Brezhnev himself has never/hinted at any wish .. to retire., despite failing health, and his elderly Politburo ,colleagues, most of whose careers have been tied to his, have no reason to seek, his departure. But what is increasingly uncertain Js how far Mr Brezhnev’s health, which enforces frequent rest periods, permits him to wield the substance rather than the trappings of. real power. “With routine things it doesn't matter, the apparat can run things without him. The problem starts when real decisions have to be taken," commented one Western diplomat. Mr Brezhnev still takes the lead in major foreign negotiations but mostly restricts himself to reading an opening statement, leaving further talking to the Foreign Minister, Mr Andrei Gromyko, or someone else. Foreign diplomats believe that increasingly it is Mr Chernenko who wields influence behind the scenes, while Mr Brezhnev is surrounded by a personality cult which gives rise to irreverent jokes among intellectuals. Mr Chernenko, 70, was a fairly minor provincial propaganda official when his path crossed that of Mr Brezhnev in Moldavia some 30 years ago. Since 1956 he has been at Mr Brezhnev’s side as his effective

chief of staff, heading the Communist Party’s General Department since 1965., He had to wait until 1971 to become, a Central Committee member and-until 1976 to become a party secretary.' but in the last six years his career . has advanced rapidly. In 1977 he became a candidate member of the Politburo and in 1978, a full -member, giving ■ him a share '6i pbwer in his own right. A year ago at the 26th Party Congress he ranked fourth in the list of party secretaries behind Mr Brezhnev, Mr Suslov and Mr Andrei Kirilenko, a senior Politburo member with general responsibility for economic and industrial policy. Since Mr Suslov’s death it appears that Mr Chernenko has effectively skipped over Mr Kirilenko into the number two seat. On public occasions he has been placed closer to Mr Brezhnev than Mr Kirilenko, and in talks this month with the Polish leader, General Wojciech Jaruzelski, he clearly filled what would have been Mr Suslov’s seat on the Soviet side of the table. Mr Kirilenko, three months older than Mr Brezhnev, was once regarded as his most likely successor but most foreign analysts believe his influence has been on the wane for some time. Mr Chernenko’s speciality is internal party organisation but he may start to take over some of Mr Suslov’s responsibility for foreign and ideological matters. He is believed to be in

charge of the writing of a new Communist Party programme, a move approved a year ago at the Party Congress. He is a frequent writer in Party journals and has been prominent in warning the Communist hierarchy not to ignore the lessons of events in Poland. Mr Chernenko’s catchphrase

is the “Leninist style of work,” a slogan which emphasises pragmatism and flexibility above dogmatic fidelity to the letter of Marxist doctrine. In several articles he has said the Polish crisis, with its sudden collapse of Communist authority, shows that ruling Communist Parties must not take their

leading role for granted. He urges party officials to spend more time on the shopfloor studying workers’ complaints and less time sitting in their offices issuing instructions. The central message,is that what the Soviet Union needs is more, not less, control by the Party at all levels — a diagnosis which is not shared by technocrats and economic managers. Despite the rise of Mr Chernenko, most Soviet and foreign Kremlin-watchers believe his chances of eventually succeeding Mr Brezhnev as Party General Secretary are none too bright. This is because he has no power base of his own apart from the favour of Mr Brezhnev, and in other ways seems ill-equipped for the top job. Mr Chernenko is a poor public speaker, and both Soviet and foreign officials who have met him say he makes no strong personal impression. His experience of foreign affairs is limited, though he ' accompanied Mr/Brezhnev to the Helsinki European Security Conference in 1975 and his summit with President Carter in Vienna in 1979. A more serious ihandicap is that he has never been responsible for running any major industrial plant, town or region, but has spent all his career behind the scenes. Foreign analysts believe that if Mr Brezhnev tries too obviously to make Mr Chernenko his heir-apparent this could lead to friction at the top. — Reuter/NZPA