Survey shows party standings unchanged

Press, 9 March 1982, Page 5

Survey shows party standings unchanged

Party standings in the second week of February were almost unchanged from the November 28 election result, according to a survey of 2000 eligible voters throughout the country. Thirteen per cent of eligible voters were uncommitted. Among the . ranks of intending , voters, . the National Party received 40 per cent support and the Labour Party 39 per cent support in the February survey, as compared with the election result of 39.01 per cent of the vote for Labour and 38.78 per cent for National. Social Credit received 20 per cent support- in the survey, as compared with 20.66 per cent of votes in November;?;' ? ■■■?'■?; The results come from a “New Zealand Herald”NationaL Research Bureau survey held from February 6 to February 10. The 2000 people surveyed were eligible voters, selected by random probability methods from New Zealand’s 20 main population centres. A question put to the people. interviewed was: ■ “If an election had been held yesterday, which party would you have voted for?” The rounded-off responses, as compared with the roundedoff election figures, were: .

Thirteen per cent of eligible voters were. uncommit : ted (that is, they said they would not vote, or did not know or refused to say which party they would vote for), as compared with the 12 per cent non-vote in the 1981 election. The poll figures are subject to a maximum statistical sampling error of plus or minus 2 per cent. The loyalty and switching patterns of current intending voters are:— Of 1981 National voters, 96 per cent would remain loyal, 2 per cent would switch to Labour and 2 per cent to Social Credit. Of 1981 Labour voters, 95 per cent would remain loyal, 1 per cent would switch to National and 4 per cent to Social Credit, Of 1981 Social Credit voters, 86 per cent would remain loyal, 7 per cent would switch to Labour and 7 per cent to National. Of newly eligible voters, 33 per cent support National, 48 per cent Labour and 19 per cent Social Credit. Of 1981 non-voters who would now vote, 23 per cent support Labour, 50 per cent National, 25 per cent Social Credit, and 2 per cent Values. Support for National is highest in Christchurch provincial areas, among people aged 55 and older, and among women. It is lowest in Dunedin provincial . areas, among people aged 18 to 24, and among men.

Support * for. Labour ' is highest, in Dunedin City, among people aged 45 to 54, and among women. It is lowest in Auckland provincial areas, among people aged 35 to 44, and among men. Support for Social Credit is highest in Auckland provincial areas, among people aged 18 to 24, and among men. It is lowest in Christchurch city, among people aged 55 and older, and among women. Present main-party supporters, and the 13 out of every hundred who form the uncommitted group, voted as follows (read downwards) in the 1981 General Election:

The sex and age characteristics of current main-party supporters and the uncom-

— Copyright, 1982 — “New Zealand Herald.” . TOMORROW: How voters see New Zealand’s "Top 10” problems.

Feb '82 % Nov ’81 ■ % National 40 39 Labour 39 39 Soc Cred 20 21 . Others 1 1

1981 Vote N L S Un % % % % National 88 2 3 12 Labour 1 89 6 9 Socred 3 3 83 9 Others 1 1 — 3 Didn’t vote 5 2 5 62 New voters 2 3 3 5

mitted group are:— S % Un. % N % L % Women 52 51 47 48 Men 48 49 53 52 18-24 18 21 28 19 25-34 19 21 28 20 35-44 17 14 17 16 45-54 15 17 11 18 55 plus 31 27 16 27