We will be the Govt, say National, Labour

Press, 23 November 1981, Page 1

We will be the Govt, say National, Labour

PA Wellington The leaders of New Zealand’s two main political parlies are both confident that their party will be the Government next week. The leader of Social Credit (Mr Beetham) says the outcome is difficult to predict. The Prime Minister (Mr Muldoon) enters the final week of the election campaign confident that his party is poised to begin a third term ol office under his ieaciersinp. Labour’s Leader (Mr Rowling) goes into the vital final week insistent that his party is ahead in the race.

Mr Beetham said in an interview yesterday that he

had not been able to detect any noticeable political vibrations indicating that either Labour or National were certain to become the Government.

Interviewed last evening Mr Muldoon said that a public opinion poll conducted on behalf of the National Party indicated that last week-end National was maintaining its lean over the Labour Party.

"Our poll differs from that of the Heylen and N.R.B. polls because it takes greater account of the rural areas. We’ve been taking polls throughout the year and this latest one snows we are holding up.

“Throughout the country there are minor ups and downs but over-all the Government is ahead to the point where mere will be a significant move on a percentage basis to us over 1978. On the basis of this poll, which coincides witn others, we will get a trend toward the Government."

Mr Muldoon said he had spent a good deal of his-time during the week-end studying the pod tn depth.

“After these studies I believe there has not been a move towards the opposition parties. If. the election had been held last week-end the Govenrments total vote

would have been greater than Labour’s. “The first two weeks of campaigning do not appear to have shaken loose what was showing up before the campaign started.’’

Mr Muldoon said Labour’s more spectacular policies embracing tax concessions in particular had gone down “like a lead balloon."

"As far as we can see there has been no impact. It is simply a matter of credibility. The swing voter and he young voters who are quite volatile are placing Labour third. ! Mr Muldoon said he was surprised that Mr Rowling had decided to announce at Dunedin his party's opposition to the Aramoana aluminium smelter’s proceeding. He said he planned to talk strongly on the smelter project when in Dunedin for an election meeting on Tuesday, in particular pointing out differences in stance between the Lanour leadership and local member of Parliament on the issue.

“Our polls show us having a significant edge and if things stay that way we will increase dur total vote.” Mr Muldoon will start his last few days of campaigning today at Timaru. where he will have a lunchtime rally and then move south for a meeting at Oamaru this evening. After Dunedin and Invercargill Mr Muldoon will return to the North Island on Thursday.

His last big rally of the campaign will be at Palmerston North that evening. when he will endeavour to help National candidate and the local Mayor, Mr Brian Elwood, overcome

Labour’s 2736 majority for the city seat. The third week was generally a good one for- Mr Rowling.

After a lull after his opening in Palmerston North, he believes he has now estab iisned the momentum needed io haul back the National Party's pre-campaign opinion polls lead, and overtake it.

He started in Christchurch by attracting a highly enthusiastic crowd of 2400 — 400 more than heard Mr Muldoon, on Thursday — and a crowd that is still the biggest drawn by anyone during the campaign so far.

He finished much more quietly at Wanganui, but remained optimistic. The strategy is very similar to that which came close to putting Labour back in power in 1978 and Mr Rowling believes it is working better this year. . “It is a stronger and better campaign than we had in 1978,” he told NZPA. We are still gelling very strong feedback from the opening night. That was terribly important to our people in the electorates.

“They feel they are on a winning streak." That feeling is obviously shared by Mr Rowling. He is relaxed -and militantly confident and is taking every opportunity to get through to people personally — on visits to factories and standing round at airports and in hotel lobbies, chatting and doing what politicians call ‘‘pressing the flesh."

Labour’s strategy has been to get Mr Muldoon reacting to Mr Rowling ... and “his meetings seem to be becoming increasingly one's of reaction. If he is not complaining about the news media he is trying to denigrate the Labour Party in one way or another or lie is responding to things were are proposing," Mr Rowling said. “I do not think we have ever been off the offensive since the opening night.” The third week has been a good one for Labour. Everything had played its way, Mr Rowling said. The Prime Minister’s admission of the existence of official reports critical of the “think big” energy projects, after several days of denying them, has substantially damaged both Mr Muldoon’s credibility and that of the growth strategy, Mr Rowling asserts. “If there are people out there who are not particularly politically aligned, that must really cause them to think,” he said. “If there are people out there who are in two minds over what ‘think big’ is all about,. that must cause them to think, too.” Mr Rowling believes Labour “can build more momentum yet,” and this week is structured to do that.

He expects tomorrow's meeting at Auckland to be the biggest,, most enthusiastic rally of the campaign; bigger and better than the one in Christchurch. His last meeting, at Lower Hutt on Thursday evening, would be. Mr Rowling said, “the platform for the launching of the new government.” Mr Beetham said' that in 1972 he could feel the electorate turning towards Mr Norman Kirk mid-way through the campaign. In 1975, one could feel the electorate going to Mr Muldoon. In 1978, it was obvious that Labour w T as coming up and the result would be close. “But this time the only thing I am sure about is that we will go up on what we have got and I am getting no vibrations of momentum for the other two parties,” Mr Beetham said. He was very pleased with the way Social Credit’s campaign had gone so far. “The meetings I have had have been terrific and in most cases audiences have been about. double that of 1978. From our point of view it looks good. “The feedback from electorates and the man in the street has been good. If people vote the way they are telling us they are going -to vote we will do very well. “Our original prediction of

this election being a threeway contest will be realised.”

' Mr Beetham said he believed geographical considerations were going to be important to the over-all result.

Public opinion polls had not. he believed, taken sufficient account of the views of rural electorates, particularly those in what he called the "Social Credit” green belts of North Auckland, Waikato, and Bay of Plenty. “They have tended to create an image of Social • Credit slipping. This may "be true in some places but overall I believe we are going to make up ground again just as we did in 1978.” Pollsters also tended to portion out uncommitted voters to National, Labour, and Social Credit according to the percentages they received from committed votqrs. “If there is a high number of uncommitted people there is likely to be a high number of disillusioned voters and it is surely probable a good number of them won’t vote for the established parties.” Mr Beetham said he believed Labour had reached a plateau of support, about 35' per cent, and could not get above it, “and where we are second. Labour is getting squeezed.” . .