League hopes for ‘fermentation’ in Chch

Press, 18 November 1981, Page 16

League hopes for ‘fermentation’ in Chch

By

KARREN BEANLAND

Several weeks ago the deputy leader of the Social Credit . Political League, Mr Garry Knapp, addressed a meeting in Christchurch. An attractive figure, exuding confidence and enthusiasm, he gave a fiery speech in which he offered Social Credit as the new party of reform, the new party of the centre. . His audience consisted of about 60 people, scattered 1 about a cavernous hall. Most of them had gray hair. What is wrong with Social Credit in Christchurch? In other parts of New Zealand, particularly the northern half of the North Island, the party has seen an explosion of support. Its support peaked at 30 per cent in opinion polls after Mr Knapp’s success in the East Coast Bays by-elec-tion. It has come to rest at about 22 per cent. The party may gain several seats in the coming election if support remains that high. It is likely to come second in a substantial number of seats. It is a nagging threat to both Labour’s and National’s election chances. Some people, not only those within the party, believe Social Credit may hold the balance of power in Parliament after this election. Some believe the party may eventually replace Labour — or National — as the Opposition. Yet the impact of the league in Christchurch, along with most of the South Island, has been very low. It is one of the weakest areas for Social Credit. Support for the party in Christchurch in 1978 was only half the 16 per cent national average. With a higher national profile and equal television time during the election campaign, its support is bound to go up this time. Social Credit still cannot set its sights on winning any Christchurch seats. Only in Selwyn is there any chance that the party may influence

the result if it takes enough '.votes from either of the other parties. Mr John Wright, the South Island organiser, sees the aim in this election as building support to win second place in as many seats as possible. That will lead to higher hopes in 1984. .Social Credit ousted National from second place in the 1979 Christchurch Central by-elec-tion. Now it is also hoping for the number two slot in Sydenham, Selwyn, Avon, Fendalton and St Albans. Further afield it sees the West Coast, Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough, Waitaiki and Otago as high on the hopeful list. The party’s local chances look best in Sydenham and Avon, where Labour has a virtual stranglehold and National has been fairly weak. It is more difficult to judge what will happen in Selwyn and Christchurch Central. Selwyn is the league’s strongest seat, but there is an energetic struggle between . all three parties. It is difficult to draw any conclusion from the 1979 by-election in Christchurch Central because there was only a 33 per cent turn-out. Mr Knapp describes the state of Social Credit in the northern North Island as one. of “ferment.” People see the party as a new political force with a glowing future. By contrast, he agrees that it still suffers from the old “funny money” taint in Christchurch. The media is seen as one of the key reasons for Social Credit’s poor performance in Christchurch. Party rriembers even have a name for what they see as a lack of response in the media to its growing political status — the Christchurch bottleneck. Mr Knapp thinks the media have played an important part in the growth of Social Credit in the Auckland area. He says it provides a momentum for change.

Local Social Creditors blame the Christchurch newspapers, in particular, for the media lf stories about Social Credit are printed at all, they are printed days late when they have lost their impact they say. Frequently, stories cover National and Labour policies, but ignore Social Credit. Mr Wright. sees it as c frustrating chicken and egf situation. “The media see us as having a lower profile and we are treated like a minor third party, and because we are treated that way in the media we are seen like that by the public. Do you break through to the media first, or the public?” One of the problems for Social Credit is that its spokespersons tend to be discounted because they do not represent a Government or Opposition point of view. “One of the things the media in Christchurch is ignoring this time is that we may well hold the balance of responsibility in the next Parliament. Therefore our point of view may have more - bearing than previously. We may be modifying the policies of the other parties,” says Mr Wright. Another reason for the poor performance of Social Credit in Christchurch is that the party has focused its attention on the Auckland area.’ This is simply because it is the country’s biggest population area, says Mr Knapp. Mr Wright also believes that the party’s organisation in Christchurch has evoled in a slightly different way to other parts of the country. It has been extremely successful in

raising funds, but has put less emphasis on winning political support! * This is something the party plans to change. Mr Wright has been the first full-time partyorganiser in Christchurch for some years. Whether this post is kept, after the election depends on an assessment of the party’s performance. With or without a full-time organiser, the party plans to take a month’s rest after the election before getting on the campaign trail for the 1984 election. Mr Alan Mcßobie, a Christchurch political scientist, agrees that Social Credit’s goal to build up’a strong base level of support in Christchurch is a realistic one. He believes the party will make most headway in Labour strongholds such as Avon and Sydenham, where Social Credit is rising at the expense of National. He says the party has suffered because of political infighting which occurred in Christchurch in the early 19705. The harshest reason for Social Credit’s low electoral support in Christchurch is that it lacks strong and attractive candidates. The party , recognises the need for. more strong candidates. Mr Knapp says, politely, that there has been no real lead for Social Creditors here, and adds that some candidates start from a “hopeless” position. In the North Island Social Credit has benefited from an impressive team of candidates who put across its message in modern, more acceptable language, he says. “People down here are just not talking the modern day language. You talk about new economic strategy or order, not monetary reform,” he says. “We are talking about the same things, but here they are just presenting it a little differently.” Other party members say Social Credit has suffered from

Christchurch’s general conservatism and the tight hold of Labour. Mr Knapp, who places a great deal of importance on Christchurch, expects to see the same “fermentation" in support that has occurred in the Auckland area. The party locals believe it is already happening, with a 300. per cent increase in support during the last three years. With a general growth in support, the party expects to see stronger candidates coming ! forward. “Christchurch is behind the far north of the North Island,” says Mr Wright. “We are probably on a par with Wellington. But we will lift our profile. We are aiming at evolution, not revolution. We are not going to turn the political scene upside down over night.” Social Credit support is reemerging in areas where it has historical strength, and Christchurch is one of those, he says. The Social Credit Association was formed in this city in 1953 and many of the league’s stalwarts have come from here. Mr Wright believes the future of the Social Credit Political League hangs to some extent on the performance of Labour. “If Labour does not win this election it would be an advantage for us because Labour would be deep in trouble.” With so many Labour seats in Christchurch, the area would be very “vulnerable” to Social Credit. The shadow hanging over Social Credit’s hopes is how much of its new support is merely a protest against the two other parties. Will they turn back to their traditional parties when National and Labour look more attractive, and leave Social Credit to decline. Many Social Creditors agree that the party is picking up protest voters — but they also believe that they will keep

them. Mr Stephan Lipa, the party’s president, says both National and Labour are doing the job of keeping them for Social Credit. Party supporters believe Social Credit is on the up for* good. Mr Richard Bach, the candidate for Sydenham and a member of the political executive, believes the party is seen as a real alternative. This attracts more people to stand as candidates and work for the party. “Some people are still hedging their bets. They are prepared to vote for us, but won’t become members until they see how strong support is at this election,” says Mr Bach. He says Social Credit is being taken seriously because it has sound policies — 200 copies of the manifesto were sold in Christchurch in 24 hours. The Proposition 28 clause on taxation, and the policy on rates, attract most interest. Mr Wright believes the party has already started its boom in Christchurch. As evidence, he cites the rapidly growing membership, the younger average age of party organisers, and increased activity at branch level.

General Election