Strong challenge in Onehunga

Press, 30 October 1981, Page 21

Strong challenge in Onehunga

The Labour Party appears to face the strongest challenge yet in Onehunga, a seat which it has held for 43 years. Mr F. M. Gerbic sits none too comfortably on a majority of 1207 gained in a byelection 16 months ago and the signs are that Onehunga is marginal in this General Election.

The seat has changed dramtically from the days when the late Mr Hugh Watt considered any majority under 4500 to be disappointing.

Boundary changes for the 1978 General Election altered things significantly. Party campaigners suggest that many supporters did not vote in Onehunga in the last General Election because they believed it was a safe seat for Labour.

The by-election poll after the death of Mr F. L. Rogers was low. While Labour’s majority fell by 200 votes, Mr Gerbic slightly increased his party’s share of the vote. The National Party’s share skipped a litte.

The roll will be smaller this time, down more than 4000 to about 22,000, and National’s candidate, Mrs Sue Wood, has been working solidly since March. National is now claiming significant gains in some areas and could benefit from Labour votes stolen by the Social Credit Political League's new man, Mr Stewart Perry.

Political theorists, not impressed. by National’s claim that Onehunga is marginal, do, however, regard the seat as interesting.

This interest and the prospect of a close finish is fuelled by Mrs Wood’s candidacy. She is a strong candidate, with a good deal of appeal. There will always be debate on how many votes a top candidate may be worth in an election fought on national issues.

The personal vote could be quite significant in Onehunga if Social Credit is close to the mark in its assessment that 31 per cent of voters in the seat have still not made up their minds. Social Credit canvassing also indicates that it can improve its 11 per cent share

of the by-election total. Its base is so low that it would be a surprise if support for the league did not rise several points. The league should attract some of the uncommitted voters.

The other two parties play down Social Credit’s impact in the electorate, although the signs are that the league will have some influence on the result. Mr Perry talks of a three-way split. Labour could be hurt by Social Credit but still seems to be in a useful position. Mr Gerbic has already canvassed 70 per cent of the electorate. Labour commissioned an independent’ organisation to survey the electorate a week after the Waikato-Springbok

match was cancelled. It gave Labour 46.7 per cent support, National 36.6 per cent, and Social Credit 16.5 per cent. The Labour figure is almost identical to that achieved in the 1978 poll. Otahuhu

In Otahuhu, Mr R. J. Tizard holds an unassailable majority of 4762 for Labour.

Not even an opponent as young and ambitious as National’s Mr ■ Stewart McDowell expects to beat such odds.

He will try to prune the Tizard majority to its 1975 low of 3785.

But there is no sign of waning electoral support for the man who. at 57. is ending his twenty-second year as a member of Parliament after a term which saw him dropped as Labour's deputy leader.

The Social Credit candidate. Mr Kenneth Harris, aged 52, polled 2288 votes in the 1978 Otahuhu election and has never stopped campaigning. Mrs Ella Ayo will contest the seat for the Socialist Unity Party. She is the party’s vice-president and in 1978 polled 23 votes. Pakuranga

The once "true blue" Pakuranga electorate appears to be one that National cannot take for granted in the election.

Social Credit, buoyed by

its success last year in East Coast Bays, which is in many ways similar to Pakuranga, is making a determined assault on the sitting National member, Mr T. de V. Hunt.

The league has a formidable task to overtake National. Its candidate, Mr Neil Morrison, was fourth in the last election with 2918 votes, which was 14 per cent of the poll. But there are several complicating factors, including the general rise in support for the league and the 4455 votes which in 1978 went to the independent candidate, Mr Gavin Downie. Mr Downie was the former National member of Parliament whom Mr Hunt ousted in a selection battle.

Many Pakuranga voters still resent the way Mr Downie was dumped. Mr Morrison, who is trying to win the seat for the third time, is chasing the Downie vote and is working to undermine the' solid core of Labour support in the electorate.

Mr Hunt polled 7615 votes in 1978, which was 36 per cent of the votes and a 2111 majority over Labour. In this election he should attract a higher vote as some of those who plumped for Mr Downie last time return to the National fold. Mr Hunt must be the favourite to win the seat. However, he has had a relatively low-key three years in Parliament and does not seem to have a strong personal following. The local electorate organisation was so lacklustre just four months ago that senior National officials publically despaired of it. Labour, which got 5504 votes in 1978, has always had a following in parts of the electorate and should not be written off, although party officials concede privately that they expect National to win.

Mr Peter Turner, aged 43, is the Labour candidate. A primary schoold deputy principal, he is likely to go down well personally. Pakuranga is not over shadowed by local issues. Its underlying affluence ensures that .the national economic and political scene dominate the bustlings.