Connelly country an election enigma

Press, 30 October 1981, Page 13

Connelly country an election enigma

By

KARREN BEANLAND

Yaldhurst is an enigma among Christchurch constituencies. Many political observers look upon it as National on paper. In fact, it has been held, under its. various,names, by Mick Connelly for Labour for just on 26 years. And he is supremely confident he will hold it again, with an increased majority. Despite Mr Connelly’s optimism, most would agree that all the signs point to a close tussle this time. It is a seat filled with contrasts, from working-class areas in Hornby, to upper-crust Fendalton and Ham, to rural areas which border the Selwyn electorate. Yaldhurst has almost literally grown around Mr Connelly over the past quarter century; his name is synonymous with the seat. But National’s candidate, Mrs Margaret Murray, has launched a concerted and effective attack on the Labour stronghold. National has been making small inroads into Mr Connelly’s support over the past two elections. In 1978, his majority was reduced from 2000 to 1600. Mr Connelly won 10,186 votes, compared with National’s 8548. Nevertheless, it would still be a surprise if Mrs Murray wins this election. It would need a 4.4 per cent swing to National, and she will be struggling against a probable national trend to Labour as well as ingrained personal support for Mr Connelly. She will have, probably, a better chance of winning the 1984 election for National if she decided to stand again. Already well known from this campaign and her work as a Waimairi County Councillor, she would most likely be fighting against a new Labour candidate in 1984.

Mrs Murray has been campaigning extensively all year. She has been criticised for the amount of money being spent and her use of television advertising. Some locals say she has even reached the point of overkill.

However, the campaign has certainly been effective in getting her known. A hdfaiful of people surveyed

by the Christchurch political scientist, Mr Alan Mcßobie, and six Christchurch Teachers’ Training College students in September, believed she was their M.P. already. Mr Mcßobie says that it would be a “fairly tall order” for Mrs Murray to win Yaldhurst. -It would require a swing to National of about

the same size that put Labour into office in 1972. However, Mr Mcßobie believes she is doing a pretty good job in fighting for those votes. His survey of 105 voters found that she was well known. Her extensive advertising has had an effect, even if it has resulted in many cases in only know-

ledge of the vaguest details about her.

National supporters knew most about her while the floating voters knew least. “The people who don’t know her are the ones she has to convince to support her,” he says.

Mr Mcßobie’s survey is interesting in that it confirms the view that Social Credit is taking twice as many Labour votes as National.

Ten per cent of the sample described themselves as “shifting” voters. Of those, 18 per cent were moving from National to Social Credit,. 18 per cent were moving from National to Labour, and 36 per cent were moving from Labour to Social Credit. None were moving from Labour to National.

While Labour is the net loser of this shift in votes, Mrs Murray would gain little. Social Credit is the party to benefit most. Reasons given for the changing votes were dissatisfaction with the present M.P., with both Labour and National, and opposition to Mr Muldoon. Some had decided to change because they liked Social Credit’s leader, Mr Bruce Beetham, and believed the party should “have a go.” However, Mr Mcßobie thinks that Social Credit will have little effect on the election result for the seat and that it is basically a twoparty fight. “Yaldhurst is probably the worst electorate for Social Credit in New Zealand,” he adds.

Neither of the other two candidates who have come forward so far are likely to have milch effect on the electorate. Dr Alan Wilkinson is standing for Values and Mr Geoff Bucknail is the sole candidate so far for the Citizens’ Democratic Party.

Mr Mcßobie describes the situation in Yaldhurst as “fluid.” He expects the

national campaigns by all parties to have a big effect, since many people still vote along party lines.

Mrs Murray still has to counter Mr Connelly’s campaign. Mr Connelly has been “so low that he has almost gone underground,” says Mr Mcßobie; but that when he starts campaigning he has an impressively long record of service to build on.

“If the Labour Party’s campaign is positive, and is accepted as: positive by the electorate, if people see it as realistic and appropriate for the times, then the people who are talking about voting Social Credit may move back to Labour,” he says. He believes that most people support Social Credit for negative reasons.

Mrs Murray is not yet saying that she will win Yaldhurst. She recognises that she has an uphill battle, but says that is “going in the right direction.”

Her work as a Waimairi County councillor must be an advantage because she is a familiar face to many members of the local community. Aged 40, she has lived in the area for more than 17 years. She joined the National Party in 1974 and has served as a dominion councillor and electorate chairman.

Described in one publication as intelligent, wellorganised, and shrewd, despite a deceptive “prissy, perm-and-gloves appearance,” she follows the National Party line with fervour.

She has been angry that the only media attention given to her campaign has been over the controversial use of television advertising and the amount of money being spent.

The success of her up-beat and forceful campaign has been the result of a strong and well managed organisation, she says. The amount of money spent is her own business.

The 3000 National Party members in Yaldhurst testify to her success. However, Mr Connelly says Labour membership is also at its highest level.

Mrs Murray pins her hopes of winning Yaldhurst on the changing character of the electorate. She says it is a privileged area with Voters who are becoming more naturally National, and that the area is probably the fastest growing in Christchurch, with many businesses benefiting from the Government’s growth strategy. Also on her side, she adds, is the fact that Labour has taken the seat for granted. She believes Mr Connelly

may have been there a term too long. He is “conspicuous by his absence,” she adds. “The credibility of Labour is in question. They are not providing a clear alternative to National. People are concerned about the excess of promises made by Labour.” Door knocking in Yaldhurst is “sheer pleasure,” Mrs Murray says. She believes that voters realise this election is important for New Zealand’s future and that it will be decided on national, rather than local, issues.

Mr Connelly does not accept that Mrs Murray is a major threat to his hold on Yaldhurst, “even though they have spent a lot of money.” He expects, if anything, to increase his majority. His confidence rests in the years of service he has given to the electorate and in a profound belief in Labour Party policies. “There has been a tremendous amount of advertising in the electorate. We have had a series of visits by Ministers and M.P.s on a scale I have never seen before. But that is no substitute for doing what the people in the electorate need,” he says. He agrees the electorate

has changed and is on paper a National seat, but he points out that at every stage he has been a part of the area’s growth. Even in the wealthy areas he gets good support. In terms of personal involvement with the community, he must be nigh on impossible to beat. The list of community organisations in which he plays a leading part covers at least two full pages. He believes that people want a change of government and that Labour provides the best government for the South Island. He lists the policies that will be beneficial for Yaldhurst and the region: power pricing, distribution of liquefied petroleum gas, introduction of a Wellington-Lyttelton ferry service, electrification of the main trunk railway line, improved reading, irrigation, and full employment “If you want two words which will be the key to this election, they are economic management,” he says. Mr Connelly can give a list of the local problems as long as your arm, but the one local issue which may work against National in this election is the Christchurch International Airport. x

“Many people involved with aviation live in this electorate and they are vitally concerned about what is happening to Air New Zealand and what is likely to happen if they get another three years of the same sort of policies. Their jobs, their homes, and their future are affected," he says.

He blames the Government’s economic policies, which have “collapsed the economy,” for the fate of Air New Zealand. People are disenchanted with the Government arid its “big thinking.” They will turn to Labour because they feel insecure.

Mr Connelly does not see his age as a problem. It is balanced by his experience in “dealing with the problems we face.”

The Labour Party’s regional secretary, Mr Brian

Arps, believes that National’s strong bid for Yaldhurst may be a help to Mr Connelly. He says National has created a “seige mentality” which will bring Labour voters out on election day. Mr Connelly has not started campaigning yet. “I don’t rely on what I can do in the last few months before an election to be re-elected,” he says. “I work year in year out for all sections of the community, whether they support me or not.” The Social Credit candidate, Mr Norman Davey, is not picking who will win Yaldhurst in this election. A long-time resident of the area who joined Social Credit in 1954, he is contesting his fourth election.

He says that Mr Connelly has done a better job than most as an M.P., but he believes this year’s result will be close.

General election marginals: YALDHURST