Washington’s indifference confuses Somali Govt

Press, 29 October 1981, Page 29

Washington’s indifference confuses Somali Govt

By

BERND DEBUSMANN

NZPA-Reuter Mogadishu,

Somalia

“We find the Americans difficult to deal with,” said the Somali Information Minister, (Dr Mohamed Aden Sheikh). “But then, we and the United States Government had differences for a decade. It would be rather naive to think we would understand each other overnight.”

Dr Sheikh put in a nutshell the nature of a relationship fraught with disappointment and mutual suspicion since Somalia broke with the Soviet Union in 1977 and turned to the United States.. The Somali about-face was a direct result of the superpower scramble for influence in the Indian Ocean and the horn of Africa, an area whose strategic importance ~is likely to be highlighted 'afresh in the uncertainty created by the assassination of President Anwar Sadat of Egypt.. . “We thought we could co-

operate because we have common interests,” Dr Sheikh said in an interview. “But we are learning to be patient.” The Somalis have little choice. On August 22, last year, Somalia and the United States signed an agreement which granted Americans access to air and naval bases on the Gulf of Aden in return for radar and anti-aircraft equipment worth $45 million in military sales credits. To date the Somalis have hot received a single shell, gun, or radar screen, according to reliable Western and Somali sources in Mogadishu. No firm date has been fixed for the start of supplies under the agreement. Most of the American credits are to be spent on Vulcan 20mm anti-aircraft guns which the Somalis say they need urgently to deter the Soviet-supplied air force of Ethiopia from bombing villages along the border with the disputed Ogaden area.

American officials have told the Somalis that the

delay in deliveries was due to the transition from the Carter Administration, which signed the accord, to the Administration of President Ronald Reagan. The explanation, senior officials in Mogadishu say, failed to convince the Government of President Mohamed Siad Barre and its scepticism was heightened by the -speed with which Washington acted after Mr Sadat was killed on October 6.

Within days of the killing, Washington agreed to the immediate shipment of arms to Sudan and announced plans to dispatch 2000 soldiers and airmen to take part in joint manoeuvres with Egyptian and Sudanese forces.

Somalia sees itself as part of an alliance which includes Egypt and Sudan and is based on common hostility towards the Soviet Union and Colonel Muammar Gadaffi of Libya, who is seen in Mogadishu as an instrument of Soviet expansionism in the Middle East and Africa. It is a view shared by the United States, whose diplomats in Mogadishu watched with satisfaction when General Siad Barre’s Government closed the Libyan Embassy in August arid broke off relations with Libya.

The action was in retaliation for growing Libyan support for guerrillas trying to bring down the Somali Government.

“By allowing any country with the same interests in the area to be weakened,” said Dr Sheikh, “the United States Government is weakening its own position . . . That is what is happening.” European diplomats in Mogadishu say that American reluctance to build up the Somali armed forces, badly mauled in the 1977-1978 war with Ethiopia, is partly 'motivated by suspicions that Somalia would take on its Ethiopian arch-enemies once again. Encouraged by post-revo-lutionary turmoil and fratricidal strife in Ethiopia, Somalia in 1977 invaded eastern Ethiopia in support of a long-standing Somali claim over the Ogaden, a vast semi-desert area inhabited chiefly by ethnic racial Somalis. At the time Somalia was still firmly allied -with the Soviet Union. In Ethiopia the young Leftist officers who overthrew Emperor Haile Selassie in 1974 were taking their country out of the Western \ orbit after more than 20 years as Washington’s best friend in Africa.

Somalia's Soviet-equipped and Soviet-trained army scored a string of impressive victories against the Ethiopians in the initial stages of the Ogaden'war. But halfway through the fighting the Soviet Union switched sides and fortunes of war turned.

Bolstered by a division of Cuban troops and an enormous airlift of weapons from

the Soviet Union, the Ethic-; pians drove the Somali forces back across the inter?’ nationally recognised border? with ,t he Ogaden, breaking the backbone of the Armj and crushing its morale, “The Army has not recovered,” said a Western military expert. “It is in par shape, it lacks equipment, ijts morale is low. It is hojelessly out-gunned and oitnumbered by the Ethiopiais. It wouldn’t have a chance ; in hell if it tried taking thembn again.” The strength of the Sonali armed forces is now esimated at barely over 6QOOO. Ethiopia has black Afnca's biggest army, with total forces of about a quarter of a million well-equippetf and well-trained regulars. Ethiopia’s overwhelming military, superiority has done nothing to change the Somalis’ insistence that Ethiopa is an occupation force in the Ogaien and has no right to be; in an area which belongs to ethnic Somalis.

"No government of Somalia would recognise the Ethiopian clain to the Ogaden. ever,” Di, Sheikh said. The United'States agreed to military 7 supplies for Somalia on condition that Somali regilars withdrew from the Cgaden. Western military soirees in Mogadishu 'say the Somalis complied with ‘ the condition, slowly and; reluctantly . at first, and thire are no regular soldiers left in the area. But the Government continues to support the Western Somali Literation Front, which has its headquarters in Mogadishu and has continued to stage hit-and-nn raids on Ethiopian targets in the Ogaden since full-scale fighting stopped. Senior Somali oficials say they suspect the Ibagan Administration is digging its feet over the 1980 agreement because Washingtai has detected signs of Ethiopian disenchantment vith the Russians and is loping for yet another turnatout in the Horn of Africa.

In this perciption of American motyes. the United States ant its Western allies have jfnade it a priority to help jcool down the internal aid external conflicts ; faced by the Ethiopian’Wader (LieutenantColonel Mehgisti Haile Mariam) to idsserf his dependence on tie Soviet Union. Given the choice between Ethiopa, . black Africa’s second rrpst populous country, and Somalia, a largely nomadic land of 3.5 million people, Soma Ji officials believe theUnitcd States would prefer Eihiopb. Whether sirh an assessment is realistic remains open to conje(ture, but Western diplomas in Addis Ababa, tie E&iopian capital, agree tiat the EthiopianSoviet honeymoon indeed appears to be Over, with the ruling militSy Government

engaged in a serious debate over long-term policy. According to American sources in Mogadishu, work on extending the Soviet-built air and naval bases in the port of Berbera is now scheduled to start before the end of the year though no firm date has been set. The Berbera bases include a 4700-metre airstrip, one of the longest in Africa, which can handle 852 bombers and the biggest American transport planes. The extension programme, American sources say, includes building an up-to-date control tower and a longer quay for the port. Reports last year said the United States was planning to spend about $llO million on Berbera but there has been no recent confirmation of the figure. According to European military sources one of the reasons for the apparent lack of American urgency in making use of Berbera has been increasing reliance on Djibouti, 250 km up the coast.

Situated on the western shore of the Bab el-Mandeb, the 27km strait which links the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, Djibouti is staunchly pro-Western and is host to 4000 French troops. Last year, for the first time, the number of American vessels refuelling at Djibouti’s deep-water port exceeded the number of warships from France. “Obviously, Berbera is a useful base to have for the United States,” said an Arab diplomat in Mogadishu, “but they can easily do without it.”