Hunua precarious seat for National

Press, 28 October 1981, Page 29

Hunua precarious seat for National

Voters in Hunua can expect a hard-fought General Election campaign. The seat could fall to Labour with the slightest of swings- against the Government. The seat is held by Mr W.

R. Peters for National with a majority of only 192. The Labour candidate, Mr Colin Moyle, is making his second attempt to return to Parliament after resigning the Mangere seat in late 1976.

The electorate takes in part of middle-class Howick, working-class Otara, and a vast expanse of South Auckland farmland. Local problems such as unemployment and housing are likely to play a part in the election.

Labour won the seat briefly in 1978, but the party's candidate, Mr Malcolm Douglas, was replaced by Mr Peters after an electoral court disallowed hundreds of votes.

Mr Moyle, a former Minister of Agriculture, is anxious to avoid a repeat of the voting problems of 1978. His electorate workers are distributing “how to vote” in-

formation in Polynesian languages.

Capturing the big Labour vote in Otara and getting Otara voters on the roll is Mr Moyle’s biggest election task. Most of his attention

has been focused on that part of the electorate. For Mr Peters, the task is to hold on to the National support in Howick and the rural areas.

Both Mr Moyle and Mr Peters plan an intensive round of public meetings and the electorate is likely to be won by the party with the best organisation.

One problem for Mr Peters could be Mr lan Sampson, a company director, who plans to stand in Hunua as an independent National because of his dissatisfaction with the National Party. Mr Sampson

hopes to take just enough votes to cost Mr Peters the seat, but he is unlikely to get more than a handful.

Social Credit might be another matter. Its candidate. Mr Geoffrey Morell, took 13 per cent of the vote last time and hopes to increase that considerably this time. Papakura National has a vice-like grip on the Papakura seat and it will be an astonishing result if the Minister of Education (Mr Wellington) is prised out of Parliament on November 28.

Three years ago, National took more than 50 per cent of the vote with a majority of 3622 and, buy all accounts, Papakura should this election be one of the party’s strongest seats.

Mr Wellington will fight two local schoolteachers at the polls and the only big unresolved questions relate to how much he will win by — and who will be second. Labour’s candidate is Mr Eric Anderson, who hopes he will boost the party's 1978 poll of less than 29 per cent of the vote.

Social Credit’s candidate, Mr John Cheeseman. won 3401 votes in the last election. He is concentrating on rural areas, and there should

be a close race for second place on November 28. Manurewa Mr Roger Douglas seems fairly certain to hold Manurewa for Labour. In 1978 he won 47.6 per cent of the vote with a majority of 2476. Boundary changes have helped to produce three different members of Parliament in the last nine years. But Mr Douglas should stabilise things and he sees no obstacle in his way to another parliamentary term. A vigorous campaign by the National candidate, Mr Kevin Ralph, and increased interest in. Social Credit may

trim the Labour majority. But that seems all that the two Opposition candidates can realistically hope for.

Social Credit’s hope, Mr Paul Norman, wants to increase the 17 per cent slice of the vote he had in the 1978 election. In the last three years local party support has increased party membership from 100 to 300. Papatoetoe Labour looks set to retain its hold on Papatoetoe, but it will be no cakewalk. The party will be fighting all the way. With polling day less than two months away, it seems unlikely that National’s political newcomer, Mr Roy McKeen, will unseat the sitting Labour member, Mr Edward Isbey. But the possibility cannot be ruled out. In 1978, Mr Isbey rode the swing to Labour and won the new seat with a 1500-vote majority. But this year the polls reveal a lot of undecided voters in the electorate, and the seat could still go either way.

Certainly Mr McKeen is giving Mr Isbey no room for complacency. Mr McKeen, aged 45, a sales manager, is conducting a lively campaign, featuring such gim-

micks as his “dial-a-Prime Minister” answerphone service.

Neither can Social Credit be discounted. Electorate support for the league is growing and Mr Alan Shaw is a strong candidate. Mr Shaw, the only contender living in the electorate can hardly expect to win the seat, but he seems likely to boost Social Credit s share of the vote beyond the 15 per cent it won in 1978.

The outcome could hinge on whether National or Labour is hardest hit by increased support for the league.

The campaign has thrown up some lively local issues, such as the need for an

improved railway service and more local policemen. But voters seem more concerned about national economic problems. Unemployment is a particular worry in the electorate with the number of people out of work running at 5 to 7 per cent, twice the national average. Mangere Next door in Mangere, the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, Mr David Lange, dominates the electorate with, a 6200-vote majority. Labour Party workers are concentrating less on traditional campaign tactics than on finding unregistered

voters and urging people to turn out on polling day.

Mr Lange says: “Apathy is my major opponent. Both’the other parties will be competing for third place." National's man in Mangere is Mr David Perry, a firsttime candidate from Whakatane. The Social Credit candidate, Mr John Pettit, has conducted an energetic campaign of public meetings and canvassing and is likely to boost the league’s standing in the electorate, possibly into second place. The league scored 12 per cent of the total vote compared with National’s 21 per cent at the last election.