Rangitikei seat draws wide attention

Press, 12 October 1981, Page 13

Rangitikei seat draws wide attention

Wellington reporter

No electorate has drawn more national attention in recent years than Rangitikei, won for Social Credit in a 1977 by-election on the death of Sir Roy Jack when the league’s leader (Mr Beetham) defeated a local farmer and businessman, Mr J- Bull. National saw this as an aberration but, campaigning under the slogan, “Give him a fair go," Mr Beetham held the seat by 2853 votes against the National Minister of Education (Mr Gandar) in 1978. . . t National is determined to win it back. Effectively, it has been campagining for three years. Its candidate, Mr P. M. Bardwell, a former Taihape policeman, has been

a full-time candidate for more than a year. Labour has put up a young, unmarried academic from Massey University, Mr M. E. O’Connor, who will probably not attract much more than

sympathy votes. Rangitikei will be a straight fight between Mr Beetham and Mr Bardwell. It is a seat National ought to win, but probably will not. Mr Bardwell is not the right candidate to drag back the farmin votes Mr Bull and Mr Gandar lost to Mr Beetham. Mr Beetham also has a

strong hold on the small towns dotted about the electorate, and makes a strong showing in the frowth town of Feilding. He will win Labour votes because he can beat National and the Labour candidate cannot.

Nothing has happened in Rangitikei since 1978. There is still wealth among the farmers, but worry over offfarm costs'and high supplementary minimum prices hurt the Government. There is still unemployment in all the towns. The businessmen are feeling the pinch and like Social Credits business policies for them, particularly the promise of 5 per cent depreciation. The small towns of Taihape, Hunterville, Morton, Bulls, and Ashurst were all strong for Mr Beetham last time.

An anedote Mr Gandar tells sums up Rangitikei. Before the 1978 election he spoke in a rural hall outside Taihape, which overflowed with audience out into the car-park. After a rousing speech they cheered him to the echo, and afterwards overwhelmed with support and confidence. Mr Beetham held a meeting in the same hall a fortnight later which had to be cancelled because of the poor turnout. That hall contained a voting booth, which returned 72 votes to Mr Beetham and 36 to Mr Gandar. Wanganui

Social Credit also hopes to take the city electorate of Wanganui and has put up its

national research officer and rising star, Mr T. Heffernan, as candidate. National, too, has hopes of Wanganui and has put up Mrs J. Tolhurst, the wife of the former National M.P. from 1969-72. as its candidate.

Yet, since first winning Wanganui in 1972. Mr C. R. Marshall has increased Labour’s majority at each election, and it now stands at 3102. The issues of lack of development, unemployment, rising living costs and hous-

ing which are plaguing Wanganui are not such as to shift a sitting Labour candidate. Even his opponents concede that Mr Marshall has been a hard-working local member. Waitotara Surrounding Wanganui, and stretching all the way to Mount Egmont, is the sprawling electorate of Waitotara. It was held for National in 1978 by the Minister of Lands and Forests (Mr V. S. Young) by the comfortable margin of 4108, and his personal vote almost equalled that cast for Labour and Social Credit combined. But the electorate has changed. It used to be a thriving rural electorate, ser-

viced by wealthy rural towns; today, farm amalgamations are reducing the number of farmers while increasing the farm labour force and also the number of dissatisfied potential farmers, who could have become share milkers but now cannot contemplate being farmers on the larger holdings. This has also created a ’ dissatisfied workforce and pool of unemployment in the once wealthy towns. The populations of Waverley, Patea, Hawera, Eltham, and Stratford are ready for a change. They are fed up, although still seeking reasonable solutions to their problems rather than radical ones. They want regional development, they want work, and they want their towns to grow again. They dislike the farm and dairy company amalgamations occurring around them. Mr Young is not popular within his electorate, and the results of the so-called Marginal Lands Board affair are still with him. People go silent when asked about it. National can expect to lose votes to Social Credit but just how many cannot be calculated.

Labour can expect to lose votes to Social Credit too. Labour candidate is a young, single, teacher, Mr J. R. Ferrie, popular in his home town of Eltham through his involvement with rugby, but unknown outside it and not the sort of candidate to answer the worries becoming more widespread. Social Credit, however, has

fielded precisely the sort of candidate people are looking for. Mr S. Gray comes from Fordell. the far end of the electorate from where most of the voters live, but that is not hurting him. He is a married and very successful farmer, who has gone round talking puruasively to people and kaing a big impression. Waitotara shows many of the same characteristics that Rangitikei did in 1978 and. with a swing away from Mr Young and a threatened collapse among Labour votes, Social Credit will go very close to winning the seat. Mr Young’s huge majority does not look at all safe. Taupo One issue will be crucial to whether Labour can hold the marginal seat of Taupo or National can win it back — housing. There are other issues, but housing is the key because problems of development, growth, employment, and opportunities are all being frustrated by the critical housing shortage. In Tokoroa there are instances of three families per house, yet they cannot be evicted because there is nowwhere for them to go. The Taupo electorate is comprised mainly of the two boroughs of Tokoroa and Taupo. Both are on the verge of becoming cities and both see prospects for growth, but their growth is being frustrated by housing shortages. They have the land but are not big enough to finance their own housing projects, and resent the failure of the Housing Corporation to step in and build worker accommodation.

Mr J. W. Ridley holds this very marginal seat by only 609 votes. It had been a National seat until Mr Ridley won it in 1972. He lost it in 1975 but won it back in 1978 and, as far as Labour is concerned, is just about the only person who could win it for'them. He is very popular, regarded as a sincere and honest man, without many of the devious skills of the successful politician, but reliable and hardworking. He

drags votes from National because, in many respects, he is a National sort of candidate.

National has a very personable candidate in Mr R. N. McClay, a young, married headmaster, who speaks well and has campaigned hard. But most of his campaigning has been done in Tokoroa, a

Labour stronghold with more than 4000 people employed at the nearby Kinleith mill.Taupo itself is feeling a bit neglected. The Social Credit candidate, Mr J. W. Elder, polled nearly 3000 votes last time, taking more from National than Labour. The same will probably happen this time.