Stalemate in the forgotten war

Press, 3 June 1981, Page 21

Stalemate in the forgotten war

• 50,000 estimated to have been killed • 150,000 wounded — mostly civilians • two million have lost their homes

Iran and Iraq are bracing themselves for what both expect to be the decisive phase in their eight-month-old war. What propagandists on both sides describe as the “battle of destiny” is expected to take place over Abadan, Iran’s main oil centre, which has been ‘ under Iraqi attack for more than seven months. The Iraqis are reported to have massed more than 60,000 troops backed by 1000 tanks for a final attempt at seizing the city before the summer heat-waves strike. Abadan is defended by 12,000 Iranian soldiers and about 3000 auxiliaries. The Iraqi drive was originally expected early last month, but is said to have been postponed because of the clash between Israel and Syria. Iraq has promised its Arab neighbour military assistance in case of Israeli aggression. Islamic mediators suggested that the Israel-Syria conflict offered Teheran and Bagdad a way.out of their deadlocked war in the name of Muslim solidarity. However, reliable sources insist that both sides still hold that a breakthrough must come on the battlefield first. Both are in a hurry to achieve some semblance of victory because of the singularly harsh summer of Khuzestan, Iran’s south-western province — the main centre of fighting n a war that extends over 400 miles. The Khuzestan summer begins this month. Temperatures rise to 130 F. Hot and humid winds called “sharji” bring normal life to a virtual halt in July and August. Every summer dozens of people are killed by the heat on both sides of the Shatt al Arab waterway, which is Iraq’s only outlet to the Gulf. The capture- of Abadan would enable Iraq to control

both banks of the Shatt al Arab, over which Bagdad claims sovereignty. It would give the Iraqi president, Saddam Hussein, his biggest prize so far and an opportunity to pull through the summer with little more actual fighting but a great deal of propaganda. This would also give him time to try to restore Bagdad’s authority over Iraq’s Kurdish province, where autonomist rebels have become increasingly active in recent months. In Iran, a setback in Abadan could end President Bani-Sadr’s career as a military strategist The president is under heavy pressure to

accept a purely formal position, allowing the clergydominated Government to handle the war effort with the military. Iranian forces have recaptured some territory in Khuzestan, and have nibbled at the central section of Iraq’s frontier. At the same time, however, the Iraqis have made fresh inroads east of Bagdad into Iran’s Kermanshah region, which was invaded earlier this year. Teheran would welcome a summer halt in the fighting, provided it does not suffer a defeat in Abadan, so that the Government could: ", act against the rebel groups which are springing up in

more than half a dozen provinces. Counter - revolutionary forces in areas bordering Iraq, Turkey, and Pakistan have been arming themselves in recent months and securing footholds for what could become bigger forays in the future. Earlier this month, bands of rebels attacked and captured ' two small Baluchi towns near the Pakistan border. The provincial governors could not find more than 50 gendarmes to send against them. Similar incidents in Fars, Qhorassan and other pro-

vinces, demonstrate Teheran’s difficulties in combating both Iraq and its internal rebels at the same time. Capturing Abadan presents no easy task for the Iraqis. There is likely to be house-to-house fighting that could last days, if not weeks. Iraq was "reported to have suffered 5000 casualties earlier this year when it captured Khoramshahr, which is much smaller and was not so strongly defended. Iran knows that losing Abadan to Iraq would enable Bagdad to regain access to

the sea and resume normal oil exports and trade. This could give Iraq an edge, Although both sides are observing a tacit agreement not to hit each others oilfields, the war has cost both sides an estimated §BO,OOO million in damages and lost revenue. Finally, Iran is weaker. The Government now functions with almost no reserves. More than §4OOO million of Iranian assets still remain frozen in the United States. Teheran hopes for their release through an arbitration tribunal that .has begun work in The Hague. _

AMIR TAHERI outlines in the London “Sunday Times,” the crucial struggle between Iran and Iraq. Iran’s answer to any large-, scale Iraqi drive against its oil-fields would be threefold, according to sources in Teheran. First, there would be a fight to the finish in Abadan itself. -Then Iran would launch an offensive of its own, almost certainly in the border region of Mehran, south-east of Bagdad. Third, bombing raids by the Iranian airforce, now virtually suspended, would resume and be intensified. Teheran appears confident that in the long run its superiority in numbers and Bagdad’s alleged fear of heavy casualties will work to Iran’s advantage. Iranian military commanders seem to have gained more control over the general conduct of the war then they had at the outset and are concerned to prevent ruthless but costly counter-offensives mounted for political reasons. The war continues mostly as artillery duels and indiscriminate missile attacks claiming more casualties, mostly civilians, each day. Two million people are estimated to have been made homeless in a war in which about 50,000 have been killed and 150,000 wounded so far. Hot blasts of rhetoric continue, but Iraq is now almost certainly prepared to return all occupied territory in exchange for Iranian recognition of Iraqi sovereignty over the Shatt al Arab. Teheran, on the other hand, would be more than glad to get out of the quagmire, provided the Islamic regime does not lose face.

Ayatollah Khomeiny, . whose authority is diminishing in Iran, is no longer promising his religious followers that they will be able to pray in a “liberated” Baghdad. And Iraq’s Hussein is no longer hoping that his friends among Khomeiny’s Iranian opponents will come to power in Teheran. Yet, the two neighbours’ hatred, for each other is so deep and their mutual suspicions are so well entrenched that no early breakthrough or ceasefire sems likely. Iran and Iraq have a long, hot summer ahead.