Crisis in Italy

Press, 3 June 1981, Page 20

Crisis in Italy

The latest crisis in Italy carries all the signs of a long struggle ahead. The Christian Democrats have resigned over a scandal and will not want to go into an election under that shadow. The Communists, who form the next biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies, want either an election or representation in the Cabinet, which the Christian Democrats do not want to give them. The Socialists, the third biggest party in Parliament, were responsible for bringing down the Government; their leader, Mr Bettina Craxi, wants to be Prime Minister, and is withholding support for the Christian Democrats with whom he has been in a coalition. The Christian Democrats do not hold sufficient seats to govern without the support of one of the other two big parties. At the moment the positions seem irreconcilable. Membership of a Masonic Lodge with political aims has been the basis of the latest scandal. The fact that the almost exclusively Catholic Christian Democrats had members of a society which in certain parts of the world has been regarded as anti-Catholic is a surprising part of the crisis. Even more surprising is the fact that the Christian Democrat Government has fallen on the issue when it managed to survive a $2 billion tax evasion fraud in which several Christian Democrat politicians were alleged to have been involved. . The key is undoubtedly the

position of Mr Craxi. Had he wanted the Government to survive the lodge scandal as well, then it would have done so. Instead, he has judged that the timers ripe to make his bid to form the first nonChristian Democrat overnment in Italy since the war. Doubtless the success of the Socialist, Mr Francois Mitterrand, who has been elected President of France, has given him cheer. The position of the Communists is complex. They co-operated with the Christian Democrats in the Government which'fell in 1979, but they lost seats, and in the 1979 elections. This was attributed partly to the fact that they had been associated with the Christian Democrats who are widely regarded as corrupt; There may also have been other factors, such as the disfavour in which the Soviet Union was held at the time. In any event the Communists are unhappy in an association with a centre-Right party and would much prefer a coalition with the Left. The Socialists are not keen to move quickly into an alliance with the Communists. In such an alliance the Communists would almost certainly be in a powerful position to demand key Ministeries; after all, the Communists hold more than 200 seats compared with the 60 held by the Socialists. A variety of combinations is possible to resolve the latest crisis in Italy, but positions will have to change and the necessary process may take a long time.