Changes ‘inevitable’ in Soviet Bloc

Press, 20 May 1981, Page 9

Changes ‘inevitable’ in Soviet Bloc

NZPA-Reuter. - Geneva The former American Secretary , of • State, Henry Kissinger,. said yesterday that the world ..was nearing a Watershed in East-West relations, .structural, changes in Communist countries being inevitable'in the 1980 s. • The West, he told a Geneva Diplomatic Club luncheon, thus would have a chance for meaningful negotiations with the Soviets if it remained ready ■ “to . take care of "its security” arid was prepared to defend its “vital” interests. •

. The problems that became manifest in , Poland would also confront the . Soviet Union‘and other East European countries and' they would become “worse rather than better” in the mid-1980s.

The West, now facing an “extremely pbwerful coun T try” in the Soviet Union, would ; face, .in the next ;10 years, a “society in need of great adaption,” he said. “The surest way to prevent this adaption is to behave as if the Marxist theories that

did not work in the Communist world are criming true in the rest of the world.

“If the non-Communist world presents a picture of disintegration, confusion, weakness, sentimentality, then it will not get meaningful negotiations -because this will dela.v the. structural changes (in ; the ? Communist countries),” he said.- - Dr \ Kissinger went. to Geneva from a “Bilderberg meeting” in Buergenstock, central Switzerland, where Western policy toward the Soviet Union in the 1980 s was a chief topic of discussion.

The rrieeting’s private discussions were rtby more than 100 leading American<and personalities under the chairmanship t of „the‘.former, West German.. President, Waiter Scheel. ‘ The meeting, got Its name from the iplace-in’the Netherlands where the first such Trieeting took place . Iri the 19505. ' .

To support his predictions of changes in the Communist countries, Dr. Kissinger

, pointed'to the “medieval feudal” leadership system in the Soviet Union. “There is nobody in the •West who .has. any idea who .is, ..going '.-to replace . the present- (ageing) leadership, who will be the new. leader, .andjeyen their;(Soviet) leaders do not know who is going to replace them. This means that somewhere,; along; the line a more regular procedure, a more;cbnstitutiorial system, not necessarily democratic, will have to emerge.”

The state of the Communist .economies'“where surpluses and shortages exist side by side” produced Increasing; pressure . toward changes, he said,’ as did crises in various CoipmuniSt parties. Problems wopld be accentuated in; the niiii-f9BQs when: the Soviet Union's Energy situation would bar continued supplies to its East European neighbours, forcing these increasingly to turn to more trade with Western arid Middle East market economies.