Mrs Thatcher — strains start to show

Press, 4 May 1981, Page 20

Mrs Thatcher — strains start to show

By

ADAM RAPHAEL

in London

Mrs Thatcher will soon be celebrating the second anniver-, sary of her arrival at 10 Downing Street. Barring unforseen disasters, she will have at least another two years as Prime Minister before she has to face an election in the autumn of 1983 or the spring of 1984. So what does the political balance-sheet look like at the probable half-way mark of her Government?

The economic statistics could hardly be more bleak. Industrial production has fallen more steeply than at any time since the crash of the 19305. It is now running 12 per cent below the level when the Tories came to office and is not expected to recover in full before the election. Unemployment has doubled to more than 2:5 million and is predicted to go oh rising for at least another year to three million and beyond. Company profitability is at record lows, and though the stock market is at a peak, investment is stagnant. Inflation, formerly the one bright note, rose as the result of the Budget increases for the first time in nine months and is not forecast to be solidly in single figures before next year. Where does that leave the ’Thatcher monetarist experiment in mid-term? politically

one might have expected to find it in deep trouble with deteriorating morale on the backbenches and unrest in the Conservative party at large. That this is not so is one of the more remarkable features of the British political scene. “We are going to be the most unpopular Government since the War,” boasted one Minister a year ago. Yet Mrs Thatcher still appears to be being given the benefit of the doubt by the electorate. The latest Gallup Poll shows the Tories are only five points behind Labour at a time when it could well have been 20 to 25 points behind.

Mrs Thatcher has, of course, been helped in facing an Opposition in almost total disarray. Her Government could have been more sorely tested than it has been. Yet, perhaps, what many voters are saying about Thatcherism at mid-term is that it is much too early to judge.

Whether the drastic sacrifices in unemployment and loss of production will'be seen as acts of reckless masochism or political courage will depend on what lies ahead. Strikes are few, labour unrest is low, and pay settlements are moderating. But have attitudes in management and on the shop floor really changed or will they

revert to nead-on conirontration as soon as the economy picks up?

Mrs Thatcher will need first to convince her Cabinet that she is on course for a better future before she can hope to convince the voters. A central weakness of her Prime Ministership has been her inability or her unwillingness to take her colleagues along with her. The most recent incident was her veto on the Chancellor of the Exchequer from discussing his Budget strategy in advance despite repeated requests from senior Cabinet colleagues. No wonder there was serious trouble when it turned out to be far more deflationary than any of them had envisaged.

The Prime Minister had a choice when coming into office of either surrounding herself with familiars and “yes men,” or appointing a balanced Cabinet. She rightly chose the second course but that necessarily involves close consultation and a willingness to listen, to respect, and at times to bow to views which are personally distasteful.

Some Ministers are fed up with the way they are treated by Mrs Thatcher and are not afraid to say so. Stories of her losing her temper, hurling

papers across the table, oB being badly briefed and deeply prejudiced on a wide range of subjects, from nationalised industries to civil servants, have begun to circulate at Westminster.

She has clearly been overworking and under considerable strain for some months. Even close associates and admirers. such as the Industry Secretary, Sir Keith Joseph, have not escaped the lash. “You’re just an economic theoretician,” she is said to have spat out at him recently in a meeting attended by civil servants.

Unless Mrs Thatcher changes her style, which is not to be expected, guerrilla war will continue within her Cabinet. The trouble lies much deeper than individuals. Ahead lie battles over the treasury’s renewed onslaught this summer against public expendi-’ ture. Nearly all the spending department Ministers and . possibly a majority of the Cabinet i believe there is no scope for ; further reductions without incurring major damage to : health, education, and other ! services. What price tax cuts in i the next Budget if the price in i lost votes is greater? — Copy- i right, London Observer Ser- | vice.