First round in France

Press, 1 May 1981, Page 12

First round in France

Neither the French Presidential election itself, nor predicting its outcome, lend themselves to simplicity. In the first round of the election last Sunday, President Giscard d’Estaing and the Socialist leader, Mr Francois Mitterand, were left in the field for the second round on May 10. Common sense would suggest that voters who supported the other major candidate of the Right, Mr Jacques Chirac, would swing their votes for the second round behind President Giscard. Similarly, voters who supported Mr Georges Marchais, the Communist candidate, might be expected to swing their votes around to support Mr Mitterand. All that would be necessary then for the political forecaster to do would be to add up the votes and the percentages, make a stab at distributing the votes for other candidates, and come up with a reasonable guess. It would be rash to follow such a procedure. Mr Chirac has obligingly said that he would vote for the President, but he has refrained from asking those who voted for him to follow suit. He has said that they should follow their consciences. Since Mr Chirac has made some strong and telling attacks on President Giscard, bringing his own rating in the last opinion poll up to 18 per cent, which was the percentage of votes he won in the election, and is managing to reconcile his conscience to voting for the President, perhaps his supporters will follow his lead. It is by no means certain that they will. The French Communist Party has asked its supporters to vote for Mr Mitterand and, while it is likely that they will, this may make some of Mr Mitterand’s supporters shy away from him in the second round. The key element in the offer of support from the Communists was that it was unconditional, and not linked to a demand for representation in the Government should Mr Mitterand win. Had the Communists gained more than 15

per cent of the vote, their bargaining power would have been strengthened. As it is, although Mr Mitterand needs their support to gain the Presidency, they are in no position, to dictate.

Factors other than the voting in the first round are likely to determine the outcome on May 10. It is sometimes said that, in the first round of a Presidential election, French voters vote with their hearts; in the second round they vote with their wallets. If French voters are not satisfied with the economy, they should be able to lay the blame at President Giscard’s door. After all, he has not only been in power for the last seven years but the domestic position of the French President is more powerful than that of any other politician in the Western world. The French voter has an awesome task of selecting a President who has such powers for such a long period. The very familiarity with President Giscard’s policies may work against him. Although Mr Mitterand has not been President, he has tried three times in the last 16 years and is a familiar figure for that reason alone. Both men are well known to the electorate.

Tile support by France’s Communist Party, the most doctrinaire in Western Europe, and which supported the Moscow line on the invasion of Afghanistan, will probably worry many who would also like to support Mr Mitterand. These are jumpy days in Europe because of policies in Moscow. Something of a swing to the Right, most evident in the United States but observable in other parts of the Western world, may carry the election for President Giscard. A general sense of prosperity in France, in spite of the high unemployment, .• may also overcome hesitation about seeing President Giscard continue his autocratic rule in France. Given all the trends and provisos, it will be surprising if the result on Sunday week is not close.