Popularity of P.M. increasing

Press, 28 March 1981, Page 6

Popularity of P.M. increasing

The National Party has increased its lead with the voters in the wake of the industrial troubles of Febru-

ary and early March. A poll taken this month shows National with a rise of five points since January to 43 per cent, the party’s highest level of voter support since before the 1978 election.

Social Credit still holds second place, although down by two points on its January level to 29 per cent. The Labour Party has slipped by three points to .27

per cent. It is now two points behind Social Credit, compared with one point behind in 'January and November. The period between the late January poll and the

new survey, held from \ March 7 to 11, included industrial confrontation with the Government after the arrest of picketers at Ravensdown on February 17 and 48 people at Auckland Airport a week later. The period also saw the statement ’of the Attorney General (Mr McLay) on February 26 that the law must be upheld; the Anzac airlift,

Twenty per cent of the eligible voters are uncommitted (that is, they said they would not vote, or did not know, or refused to say which party they would vote for) compared with 22 per cent in January.

The figures in the poll are subject to a maximum statistical sampling error of plus or minus 2 per cent. The loyalty and switching patterns of present intending voters, with January figures in parentheses, are:

Of 1978 National voters, 89 per cent would remain loyal (88 per cent), 2 per cent would switch to Labour (unchanged) and 9 per cent to Social Credit (10 per cent). Of 1978 Labour voters, 70 per cent would remain loyal (76 per cent), 9 per cent would switch to National (4 per cent), 20 per cent to Social Credit (unchanged), and 1 per cent to “all others” (0). Of 1978 Social Credit voters, 85 per cent would remain loyal (94 per cent), 1 per cent would switch to Labour (2 per cent), and 14 per cent to National (4 per cent). Of 1978 Values voters, 22 per cent would remain loyal (18 per cent), 12 per cent would switch to Labour (22 per cent), none to National (8 per cent), 61 per cent to Social Credit (52 per cent), and 5 per cent to “all others” (0), . ’ I

starting on March 1; and the big “Kiwis care” parade led by Miss Tania Harris in Auckland on March 3.

It was a period in which the Labour Party, settled its deputy-leadership issue with a caucus vote of confidence in Mr D. R. Lange; and the party leader, Mr Rowling, opened the 1981 election campaign with a meeting in Auckland.

The National Party also settled its deputy-leadership by electing Mr Maclntyre as a Deputy Prime Minister. Mr Maclntyre was the choice of the. Prime Minister (Mr Muldoon). The latest electoral preferences are shown in a “New Zealand Herald”-National Research Bureau survey of 2000 eligible voters selected by random probability methods from the country’s 20 main, population area. People were asked: “If an election had been held yesterday, which party awould you have voted for?” ; The answers of intending ; voters, compared with the result of the 1978 General Election and the findings of other polls, were:

Of newly eligible voters 42 per cent support National (41 per cent), 24 per cent support Labour (unchanged), 32 per cent support Social Credit (35 per- cent), and 2 per cent support “all others” (0). ' Of 1978 non-voters who would now vote, 14 per cent support Labour (23 per cent), 42 per cent support National (28 per cent), 41 per cent support Social Credit (47 per cent), none support Values (2 per cent), and 3 per cent support “all others” (0). Support for National as highest in Auckland provincial areas, among people aged 45 to 54, and among women. It is lowest in Dunedin city, among people aged 18 to 24, and among men.

Support for Labour is highest in Christchurch provincial areas, among people aged 55 and over, and among men. It is lowest in Auckland provincial areas, among people aged 25 to 34, and among women. Support for Social Credit is highest in Dunedin City, among people aged 18’to 24, and among women. It is lowest in Wellington city, among people aged 55 and over, and among men. Present party supporters, and the 20 out: of every 100 polled who form the uncommitted group, voted as follows (read downwards) in the 1978 General Election:

Mar. Jan. Nov. July May Nov. July May Nov. 78

1978 vote National Labour Scored Uncommitted

The sex and 'age charac-i supporters and the uncomteristics of present party|mitted group are:— > , National Labour Scored Uncom • .• milted

Copyright, 1981—“ New Zea-1 changed party preferences land Herald.” reflected in the choices for MONDAY: Are the voters’l Prime Minister?

81 81 80 80 . 80 79 79 79 Elec38 % % % ■: tion. National 43 38 40 41 38 36 33 • ,40. Socred 29 31 31 19 19 21 19 22 4 16 Labour 27 30 30 39 38 39 43 43 40Values 0 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 All others 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1

r-." .. .. 70 % % r '/o National *2 10 . 11 Labour 7 84 22 19 JSocred.. ' ; ' 5 1 41 6 Values 0 1 3 3 All others .. .. 1 0 1 1 Didn’t vote ' .. .. 10 • 5 15 50 New voters 7 7 8 10

% % % ■y> Women T . 50 49 51 ■51 Men 50 . 51 49 49 18-24 year olds .. >. 18 ■: 18 29 29 25-34-year olds- ... v. 22 ■17 23 19 35-44 year olds .. .. is 15 19 14 45-54 year olds .. . 17 '• 16 13 14 55 plus year olds 28 34. 16 24