Social Credit ‘will lose its seats’

Press, 29 December 1980, Page 6

Social Credit ‘will lose its seats’

PA Auckland The Prime Minister (Mr Muldoon) expects Social Credit to boost its popular support at the 1981 General Election, but to lose its two seats. "Social Credit will go down and up and down,” he says, "but I don’t think National has anything to fear. "The threat is to Labour, and the polls show that We are holding our support.” Mr Muldoon, in an interview at the week-end, said that Social Credit could end up being known as the political organisation which could win votes but not seats. He expects the league to increase its share of the vote but says that it could still end up without a seat in Parliament. National will win back Rangitikei (held by the league’s leader, Mr Beetham), says Mr Muldoon, because National is attracting back the supporters who changed allegiance at the

last General Election and the 1977 by-election. Mr Muldoon dismisses this year’s East Coast Bays byelection result, giving the seat to the Social Credit candidate, Mr G. T. Knapp, as “an aberration.” Mr Donald Brash will easily regain the seat previously held by Mr T. F. Gill, he says. Social Credit fancies its chances in both Kaipara and Bay of Islands, but Mr Muldoon believes both will be comfortably held by National. The league did well in Kaipara at the last election when it collapsed the Labour vote. But 1978 was the big Social Credit chance in Kaipara, Mr Muldoon says, and he predicts that the league will not collapse the Labour vote a second time. "As for Bay of Islands, I think they are swimming against the tide there. They talk about doing very well because they have 700 members in the electorate. We have four times that figure, and that speaks for itself.”

Mr Muldoon says he does not see any Labour seats — except perhaps for Hastings — which Social Credit can J win. But he pinpoints a number of Labour seats which can go National’s way, especially if there is a strong Social Credit vote. Vulnerable seats, he says, are Taupo, Hastings, Western Hutt, St Kilda, Yaldhurst, Dunedin North Dunedin Central, and Roskill. Mr Muldoon says National is very well prepared to win the ’/General Election next year. He is confident that the party can lift its share i of the vote beyond the 40 per cent it achieved in 1978 ! . ;"but where Labour will ’ end, up, I just don’t know.” There will ndt be an darly election: it will' probably be held again oh the last Saturday in November, says Mr Muldoon. "There is no doubt that an early ‘election would give us a win with an increased majority.” But he said,. "We won’t dp that, though. It would look a bit gimmicky.”