World crop prospects

Press, 7 October 1980, Page 26

World crop prospects

Mother Nature- has swapped political allegiances this * year. In spite of rain delay--3 ing the Soviet harvest, she ~ has been kinder to the Soviet Union’s . crops than to America’s. , American grain production ■7 is expected’to fall by about 3 34M tonnes to'26sM tonnes / in 1980. The Soviet. Union’s ' should increase by 38M tonnes to 210 M. Last year it was the other way round. Soviet grain harvest fell by 57M tonnes, while America’s total production of wheat and coarse grains (crops like maize, oats and barley) rose by 26M tonnes. Largely because of the seesaw fortunes of the world’s two largest grain producers, total grain output will not change much: a 2 per cent rise this year to 1170 M tonnes. For coarse grains world output will be 5.5 M tonnes lower than in 1979, at 721 M tonnes, and wheat should reach a record 448 M. tonnes, 27M tonnes higher than last year. The 14-week-old American drought, which continues to singe states from Texas to South Carolina, has cut forecasts of America’s total coarse grain crop, which is fed mainly to animals, by 40M tonnes to ■ 194 M. Maize output, the biggest component, is expected to fall by 16 per cent this year to 166 M tonnes. Most other crops have also suffered: soybeans may drop by 19 per cent (to 50M tonnes), - cotton by 22 per cent (to 2.5 M tonnes) and hay by 15 per cent (to 113 M tonnes). Wheat, most of it harvested long before the worst of the drought, is forecast to reach record levels of 64M tonnes (up 6M. tonnes)., Rice should be up slightly at 6.4 M tonnes. - •

From, the “Economist,” London

Heavy rain in the western Soviet Union will cause the Soviet Union to be well short of its 1980 grain target of 235 M tonnes. It has also delayed the planting of winter wheat. Last year’s disastrous harvest was caused by torrential rains which began earlier and lasted longer. This year the Soviet' Union will have the choice of either refilling its grain bins, where stocks were halved last year to 16M tonnes, ..or trying to rebuild its livestock-, herd, which means using"'more animal feed. In spite of,-?a sharp increase in the slaughter of farm animals early this year, meat production in January to July this year was still 5 per cent below January to July, 1979. So the Soviet {Union is likely to import 28M tonnes of grain in the present crop year which began last July, or only 2M tonnes less than the record level last year. How much of this it gets from America could depend on the .outcome of the presidential election. Mr Ronald Reagan, the Republican candidate, has promised' to lift the partial embargo on American grain sales to the Soviet Union. If there is no change in American policy, the Soviet Union will be rationed to 8M tonnes, the maximum freely permitted under the terms of the bilateral grain -pact'. now entering its.final year. Whatever happens the Soviet Union will have to pay' .more for animal feed. The price of maize lhas risen by 31 per cent to $136 a ■tonne since the beginning of June; the price of soybeans by 40 per cent ■to $317 a tonne. • , ■. ” i'•

The West will also be hurt by the American drought The-higher-cost of feed will

translate into higher meat prices. In the United States itself the Agriculture Departmept reckons (optimistically?) the drought will add 1 per cent to the cost .of living next year.