THE PRESS FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 1980. The Australian election

Press, 26 September 1980, Page 12

THE PRESS FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 1980. The Australian election

Unlike the last three General Elections in Australia, the one; to be held on October 18 comes at the end oLa normal three-yearterm of early election.wjas called in 1974 by the then Prime Minister, Mr Gough Whitlam; an election . was required after the Governor-General, Sir John Kerr, dismissed Mr/Whitlam. in 1975; . and,, in. " 1977, the . present Prime Minister, Mr .Fraser, called an election well .before Parliament's., term had expired. The date chosen this year is nicely calcu-. lated. Queensland will hold its state ; elections in December and the Liberal Party . and the Queensland 1 version of the National Country Party; ; the National Party, will oppose each other, in this state’s, election. Mr Fraser wanted to avoid any animosity which might arise if the state election appeared to intrude into the Federal election, in which the coalition partners do not compete for the same seats. He was no doubt, also., influenced by the fact that the latest figures on unemployment will not be published by October 18. The General Election will be for , the entire 124-seat House of . Representatives and for half the 64-seat Senate. In the House the Liberals hold 67 k seats, their partners, the National ■ Country Party, hold 19, and the Australian f Labour. Party holds 38. A swing of 7 per cent to Labour would be needed for the Opposition to gain sufficient seats to form the Government. Electorates have proved themselves volatile in recent years and such a swing, high as it may seem, is not impossible. If Australians decide to vote against the Government,. though not for Labour, the position of the Australian Democrats may be strengthened. In the 1977 election the Democrats gained 9.5 per cent of the votes for the House and 11 per cent for the Senate. The result, in seats, amounted to only two of the 64 places in the Senate. The Democrats were formed from dissatisfied Liberals and, their/ showing, in the present: election may reflect continued dissatisfaction among Liberals. Voting is compulsory in Australia, and voters have to express their dissatisfaction in ways other than staying away from the polls. ‘ f :

■The touchiest issue is unemployment. The Government is likely to

plead that, although unemployment is high at 6 per cent, this is not unusual by world standards and that in fact a quarter of a; million more people are now in employment than were employed a year ago. if the Government can substantiate this information and impress them with it, the voters may be persuaded that the Government’s economic policy has been successful and that further improvements may be expected. The Labour Party, given its traditional emphasis on social issues, may otherwise be seen as better able to cope with unemployment ■ ~ Another issue is defence, though the waters on this topic are murky. A proposal has been made to have a home base for American troops and their families in Western Australia, and consideration is being given to stationing American 852 bombers in Australia. The Labour Party also says that it has details of a secret Government plan to introduce conscription after the election to bring the Army , to a strength of 250,000.. Bringing defence into election debates in.- Australia is not unusual; various Liberal Prime Ministers have done, so with flair and political gain many times. Only the fact that the Labour Party has highlighted the issue is unusual. The key to the election for many voters may simply be in the talents, personalities, and qualities.: as party and national leaders of Mr Fraser and the Opposition leader,. Mr Hayden.

■ . If the coalition is returned; present policies ar.e bound to be followed in economic and foreign matters. New Zealand can expect little change. A Fraser Government with a new mandate might be prepared to move more quickly on establishing closer economic relations with New Zealand, but New Zealand will soon enter an election year itself and that may steady the pace. If Labour is returned as the Government, the party will probably take it that its victory means that unemployment has been upsetting the voters. It is likely, therefore, that moves will be made to protect jobs by import barriers. The present Australian Government leans towards an outwardlooking arrangement between New Zealand and Australia. A Labour Government is likely to have a different view of New Zealand.