Lamb forecast ‘unfounded’

Press, 30 August 1980, Page 2

Lamb forecast ‘unfounded’

PA Wellington Lincoln College researchers appeared to have used last year’s colours in painting their gloomy picture of the United Kingdom lamb market outlook, sl'aid the Minister of Agriculture (Mr Maclntyre) yesterday.

He was commenting on a prediction by researchers that British sheeprtieat imports are likely ( to fall drastically in the next five years. “The report was .published in May, 1980, and was, I

understand, completed sev*eral months before that. “It makes assumptions about the form of E.E.C. sheepmeat regulations and the likely consequences for prices and • imports which can now be seen as quite unfounded,” Mr Maclntyre said.

Instead of leading to a significant increase in consumer prices as the report assumed, and which New Zealand has long feared, the regulation provided for a system of direct premium or deficiency payments to British producers. Market prices would be left to find their own level under the force of supply and demand, Mr Maclntyre said.

If anything, the effect on consumer prices was likely to be downward rather than upward and would thus act to stimulate rather than discourage consumption. “At the same time, the return to New Zealand producers will benefit significantly from the reduction in tariff which has been negotiated,” Mr Maclntyre said.

Lincoln College report, page 20.