Sheepmeat market in U.K. 'declining’

Press, 30 August 1980, Page 20

Sheepmeat market in U.K. 'declining’

New Zealand faces a declining market for lamb and mutton in the United Kingdom, according to Mr R. L. Sheppard, a research economist with the Agricultural Economics Research Unit at Lincoln College.

Mr Sheppard has made a thorough analysis of the United Kingdom meat market and-has found that sheepmeat imports are likely to be reduced by 43 per cent by 1985. ■ British people eat twice as much beef per head as they do sheepmeat, but consumption of both . is falling with the gains going to poultry and pork, according to the report on the study,

Price has become important to the British consumer, resulting in a gloomy outlook for the New Zealand producer as sheepmeat prices will rise to a level considered to give ’he European farme r s , especially the French, an adequate net return. -

- High prices in France have made that market an attractive one for the farmers of .Britain and ireland. However, the French have kept the British, .out. This '.has been declared illegal because trade within the community is to be free, so the E.E.G. Sheepmeat regulations will lower prices somewhat in France but raise them in Britain.

Consumption will rise in France while it falls in Britain, but higher prices ' in Britain will make the, production of lamb more ’ attractive for the British farmer, so with more being produced and less being eaten the outlook for New Zealand is not good. Studies by the United Kingdom Meat and Livestock Commission have

been investigated at Lincoln. These make forecasts to 1985 and predict that pork will be the market leader by then with 34 per cent of the market’ while sheepmeats hold 8 per cent. .

Income fs one of -the main determinants of demand, but increasing freezer ownership, onestop shopping at' supermarkets, and convenience aspects as well as changing taste patterns assist poultry and pork, are neutral for beef and adverse for sheepmeats. The indications are that sfieepmeats are becoming an . inferior product in Britain.

Referring to the present price elasticity of sheepmeats, the report says this means that for every 1 per cent rise in price consumption will fall by . '2t per cent. With the expected price increase of 14 per cent by 1985 compared with 1978, there will be a drop in consumption of 28 per cent. British farmers will be producing 83 per. cent of this compared with 56 per cent in 1978.