Figures on jobs unclear

Press, 28 August 1980, Page 16

Figures on jobs unclear

By

DAVID DODWELL

in the Times,” London.

■ The number of people out of work. in some parts ofthe industrialised world is now climbing to levels not seen since the Great ■ Depression in the 19305. But the true extent of the problem is . not easy to measure. Governments compile their statistics in differ-* ent ways ' making, international comparisons difficult. And in the. Third World the very concept of “unemployment” is often an unreal one. Most Third World countries make only a tentative attempt to measure unemployment. Their problem is rather a vast army of underemployed — the majority of people in the world — who eke out a precarious existence. As one World Bank economist • noted this week “anyone in a country, like India who is . genuinely unemployed is dead.” In the industrialised world, meanwhile, the unemployment figures are by no means always what they seem.

By the Belgian Government’s definition, for in* stance; unemployment stood at 7.3 per cent in June. The E.E.C. calculation made it 8.4 per cent, while the .O.E.C.D. put Belgian unemployment for the same month at 11.0 per cent.

Some governments' glean figures only from unemployment exchanges, noting only those who formally register as unemployed. Some conduct sample surveys across the population. (The United States takes such a sample, but excludes, people who have not actively sought ■ work in the past four ' weeks). Other countries include only, those who register for unemployment benefits. ' ' School, leaving ages and retirement ages can. greatly influence statistics, as can the entry of more women into the salary-earning labour force. In countries where the extended family still provides an umbrella of support, or where there are no state benefits for the job-

less, there may be no overriding incentive to register as unemployed in the first place. Japan’s exceptionally low unemployment level is in part a consequence of these factors.

Most governments recognise that certain kinds of unemployment are less serious than others. For example, “frictional unemployment” — unemployment recorded when a person moves from one job to another. — can be purely temporary. It may even be a healthy symptom of. a high level of labour mobility. Similarly, seasonal unemployment may not be a cause for concern. Certain industries — like construction, or tourism — are traditionally seasonal.

Of far greater concern .-is “structural unemployment” — thought to affect around 40 per cent of the 6.5 M unemployed in the European Economic Community. Workers in Europe and elsewhere are being laid off in declining industries like steel, shipbuilding, textiles, clothing and footwear. Many of these will not find -new jobs unless there is a massive injection of new investment in high technology growth, industries . •-<- i and then only after lengthy. retraining. . Workers and unions faced with extensive redundancies in declining industries? have responded by throwing up barriers to the adoption of new and highly : efficient '* technologies. They have also reduced labour mobility as workers cling; on to the jobs they have. In developing countries; unemployment takes on an altogether different: significance. Only 19 per cent of the people living in the Third World live in towns or cities, and an average of 73 per cent work in agricul- . ture. Unemployment" only. ' has significance in that it compounds already grinding poverty. ' /