Zimbabwe under Mr Mugabe

Press, 26 July 1980, Page 14

Zimbabwe under Mr Mugabe

The difficulties that Zimbabwe is undergoing are a combination of problems inherited by the Government of the, Prime Minister, Mr Robert Mugabe, and some of the Government’s own making. Mr Mugabe has, however, made some progress in resolving the problems he inherited. The .decision by the Government to continue some of the emergency measures, introduced by the Government of Mr lan Smith is regrettable. Because of the numbers of . armed guerrillas in various parts of the country, and the ever-present danger that they could start fighting, it is difficult to believe that the Government has much choice. The present comparative peace is fragile and it is a mark of Mr. Mugabe’s general competence that the fragility has not been shattered alto- ; j gethdr, The coalition- he has formed with Mr Joshua -Nkomo seems unlikely to be free from such incidents as the recent attack on the home of an aide of Mr.Nkomo, but the coalition serves the intentions of both. Mr Mugabe and Mr Nkomo and may prove to be resilient' in the face of such, incidents as the attack. One of -the problems that Mr Mugabe inherited was the presence of armed groups in the country. His own fol- . lowers, the Zimbabwe African National Liberation. Army, the followers of Mr Nkomo, the Zimbabwe People’s Revolutionary Army, and the Rhodesian Army are being slowly integrated. LieutenantGeneral Peter Wells, commander of the . Rhodesian Army, has made some pro- • gress in bringing together the three groups, some of whom have fought one another in the past. But General Walls, is retiring from his position at the end of this month and will hot be easy, to replace.’ A' choice of a successor from one . of the two guerrilla groups would involve jealousies and tribal ■ rivalries which could bring about a disaster. The Army presents a further problem, because, if ail those in one or another of the armed groups were combined, the Army would be much too large for the needs of the country. It may be

difficult to persuade some of the soldiers to seek other work when unemployment is already a problem in Zimbabwe. In the short term,.unemployment may continue to be a problem. Although Mr Mugabe has set his face against such moves as the-nationalisation of banks or extensive expropriation of land, some of his Ministers, fired by a revolutionary zeal,, have been making hints about - such moves. This has caused considerable uncertainty both among the white community in Zimbabwe and among foreign investors. Perhaps the greatest threat te the future of Zimbabwe lies there. A cycle may develop in which capital is removed from the country’and the more that this happens the louder will become the demands of some of Mr Mugabe’s Government members to take radical steps to nationalise the main elements of the economy. If that pattern develops, the whites will flee the country in great numbers, taking with them most of the expertise heeded to run the economy efficiently. Mr Mugabe is obviously trying to keep the Soviet Union at a distance. He ; is being pressed by his coalition partners to establish relations with the Soviet Union; so far he has resolutely refused. Mr Nkomo’s guerrillas, have, in the past, received extensive aid from the. Soviet Union and it is not surprising that the Soviet Union shows signs of wanting to capitalise on past connections. Some arguments have been advanced that Mr Mugabe, inclines more to - China. The most likely interpretation of his attitude seems to be that he wants to remain as independent as possible. Although he has described himself as a Marxist, he mixes considerable pragmatism with his views. It is such pragmatism that gives him a chance of success. Although Zimbabwe has not seen the end of bush, war, the prospect of stability is better than it was. International attitudes will be an important part of whether Zimbabwe ultimately achieves stability. The international community could do much to undermine Mr Mugabe.