THE PRESS TUESDAY, JULY 22, 1980. Japan’s new leadership

Press, 22 July 1980, Page 16

THE PRESS TUESDAY, JULY 22, 1980. Japan’s new leadership

Mr Zenko Suzuki, the new Prime Minister of Japan, seems unlikely to bring any important changes in domestic or foreign policy. There are reasonable grounds for believing that he became Prime Minister for that very reason. He was the natural successor to Mr Masayoshi Ohira, who died during the election campaign. Within the Liberal Democratic Party Mr Suzuki has been powerful. He has held the chairmanship of the party’s executive council and he was an important member of the group of Parliamentarians who gave allegiance to Mr Ohira —the Ohira faction. Because of his closeness to the views of Mr Ohira it is highly likely that there will be no change at all. This would reflect not only the inclination of the party, but probably the inclination of the country as a whole. The strong support given to the L.D.P. in the recent election was partly because the Japanese people, seeing tougher times ahead, wanted the stability they thought they would get from the L.D.P. rather than the risk of switching either to another party or forcing the L.D.P. into a coalition. The response of the party was to select Mr Suzuki as its leader, which automatically put him in the role of Prime Minister. In his speech of acceptance Mr Suzuki referred to the concept of the Pacific community, an idea that was dear to the heart of Mr Ohira. Many observers had wondered whether the concept would survive Mr Ohira. Mr Suzuki’s choice as Foreign Minister, Mr Masayoshi Ito, was obviously a move designed for continuity. Mr Ito served as Prime Minister between Mr Ohira's death and Mr Suzuki’s taking over as leader of the party. Like Mr Suzuki, he was close to Mr Ohira. He comes to the post of Foreign Minister at a time when he has been able to hold top-level talks with many of the world’s leaders who came to Mr Ohira’s funeral.’A hint has been dropped that Japan might be more conciliatory to the Soviet Union but, if there are changes, they seem likely to be minor indeed. A debate is being conducted within Japan about defence spending. With Mr Suzuki as Prime Minister add Mr Ito as Foreign Minister caution seems likely to rule the day. Mr Suzuki has something of a

reputation as a financial manager. Japan is planning for a heavy deficit in its current account on trade. This is the path, that it has taken to acquire the huge amounts of money that it needs to pay for its oil imports. The move has been to plunge into deficit and to allow the vigour of Japan’s exporting firms to bring the balance of trade right again. Happily for the world economy Mr Suzuki has given no indication that this approach will be changed. If Japan decided to reduce its imports to keep its trade figures in balance, the whole Japanese ..economy would be slowed and because it is such an important part of the world economy, the world would follow into an even deeper recession. The changes to be expected from Mr Suzuki may lie within the L.D.P. itself rather than in the country’s policies. Japanese politics are divided not only along party lines but between party factions within the L.D.P. There are some clear signs that many Japanese are tired of the fighting among the factions and there have been some moves to disband certain factions. Whether these factions have been disbanded or whether they will reappear soon remains to be seen. In the meantime Mr Suzuki appears to have balanced the factions in his Cabinet and, perhaps surprisingly, handed out some important portfolios to younger men who have called for an, end to the ■faction fighting. The Minister of Finance, Mr Michia Watanabe, for instance, is the third youngest member of the Cabinet at 56 and is not a member of the Ohira faction. New Zealand need not expect any dramatic changes. This country may be able to sell slightly more beef and slightly more of its forest products to Japan over a period, and New Zealand will benefit, as will other countries, from the Japanese method of handling its trade balance. No hopes should be entertained about greater liberality over farm produce imports. The L.D.P. has long depended on support from Japan’s farmers and favours them by a complicated system of high prices for beef and other protections. Mr Suzuki is no radical in his financial and foreign policy 'outlook. He is not a man who will undo party links with high-priced agriculture.