Jobless may reach 300,000 by 1984-85, says report

Press, 12 July 1980, Page 1

Jobless may reach 300,000 by 1984-85, says report

By

OLIVER RIDDELL

Unemployment levels may be as high as 300.000 by 1984-85, according to a special report on unemployment prepared for the Governinent.

The report is still only in draft form and may be amended before it reaches the Government. It was prepared by a committee of public servants, academics, and people from industry.

“Estimates of the true unemployment figure go as high as 150,000,” said the report. “Other estimates put the possible figure of unemployment by 1984-85 as high as 300,000. “There 'is no indication that unemployment will diminish in the immediate future.” The work-force increased about 100,000 in the 1974-79 period, but only 7000 extra permanent full-time jobs were created. Because New Zealand chose to base its unemployment statistics on the number of registered unemployed, the official figures did not adequately reflect the number of people “unemployed. and actively seeking work,” the report said. Clearly there were not enough jobs, even in theory, to mop up the labour available. Statistics showed that New Zealand lost more than 10,000 full-time jobs in the 1979 calendar year, the report said. There was reason to believe that many people did not register as unemployed because they were disqualified from receiving the unemployment benefit, or were unwilling to accept the dole.

"Present measures did not identify the number of people who had withdrawn reluctantly from the work-force because jobs were not available, such as those who had been- obliged to return to school or had been forced into premature retirement. “There are not enough jobs for unskilled workers,” said the report. Of 1016 jobs advertised in Auckland during one week, only 62 had been for unskilled and unqualified workers, aged under 21, and 24 of these had been for masseuses. Vacancies for skilled workers existed, but the true number was. not known precisely, the report said. Nor was there sufficient knowledge about what skills were needed. Thus there was little opportunity to make plans so that training. schemes could be established to anticipate needs. As a consequence, when a need ultimately arose, resources could not be mobilised quickly enough and skills (sometimes highly priced) had to be imported from overseas, the report said. Many skilled New Zear land workers emigrated and the investment in them was lost, sometimes for good. During the 1970 s only a small number returned to permanent residence in New Zealand. The committee identified six main consequences of unemployment:

— It is wasteful, in that human resources which could be used for New Zealand’s good remain dormant; — It is costly, with direct costs from supporting unemployed people, indirect costs from running the support system, and consequential costs caused by an increase in illhealth, psychological disturbance, delinquency, crime, and social unrest; — It is economically hazardous for New Zealand as a whole. Costs may exceed the capacity of the earning system to meet them, and unemployment erodes worker capability; — It is unjust, because some sectors of the community — youth, women, ethnic minorities, the disabled, and those with the poorest education — suffer while the rest of the community enjoys relative prosperity; — It is divisive because it emphasises differences between “haves” and ,“have-nots,” and so increases the likelihood of resentment, bitterness, and sectional violence; —lt threatens the national identity because it violates what has been a fundamental national value, the cherished belief that in New Zealand everybody gets a “fair go” and those experiencing misfortune are helped, and not subject to additional handicaps.