Dick Ryan's job is to look into the future; he sees N.Z. leading by example

Press, 7 May 1980, Page 19

Dick Ryan's job is to look into the future; he sees N.Z. leading by example

Dick Ryan calls himself an optimist. He was being optimistic ten years ago when, during time out from work as a British naval officer, he called on his slight knowledge of New Zealand to write this note to himself: “What is needed is a country far enough from the old centres of power and the exploding areas of population to escape the holocaust; with a civilised tradition already extant a small but sufficiently urban population to provide continuing science, and able to support itself in isolation if need be. Such a place is New Zealand. "It is my belief that, forearmed with knowledge of the old world’s mistakes. it will be no difficult task for that country to set itself to rights; and if , it is able to stave off wrong influences from abroad and defend its territories it will be able to produce a model which the rest of the world will one day wish to emulate.” Today, he is much better informed about New Zealand, which has been his home since 1975, yet his ideas remain basically unchanged. He still says we are in a position to lead the'' .world by example. . What is more, he is in a position where he can usefully indulge his interest in ■ where this country goes. Since 1978 he has been executive director of the Commission for the Future, based in Wellington. Commander Ryan (be has carried his navy rank into civilian life) is far , from many people’s ideas : of what a former services officer might be. He is not conservative. , for instance; on the con- ■ trary, he is fascinated by- > change and the prospect : of change. He is not ad-. dieted to institutions’ or *

traditions. He has interesting ideas about nationalism, or patriotism: “We probably need it until the world is a safer place.” He thinks nationalism could also be useful in promoting the changes which he thinks New Zealand must undertake, turning them from something to be feared into a matter for pride. “The main problem with change,” Ryan says, ‘is that it can involve an admission that something has been done incorrectly. It requires people to accept that their policies or attitudes or actions may have been wrong. “People and institutions remain conservative, not because they really believe in the old ways, but because thev don’t want to admit to error.” This applies even when change is thrust upon us — for example by rocketing oil prices. The change can be either mimimised and resisted or it can be seen as an opportunity to go much further than the immediate situation demands. This is where he considers New Zealand is now trying to decide how to react to pressures from outside. Commander Ryan sees this as an opportuniity to set New Zealand on a new course. It is a course which would lead to people moving out of the cities, to shrinking suburbs, to small-scale industries and to the growth of healthy, balanced communities large enough to provide amenities but small enough to let people know each other. It would lead to a New Zealand of “rural pull and suburban push” of people working close to their homes and travelling only, for social reasons; of vastly improved telecommunications which

would free us, in spite of our small communities, from provincialism. “We would be listening to, and talking to, the whole w'orld,” he says. We shall need perhaps 30 years, during which World War 111 will have been fought, to bring this about, and with it “a pretty good life.” It will be a life in possibilities now emerging with the microprocessor and other technologies will have been realised. Commander Ryan finds this field of special interest. He keeps a microprocessor in his office as a talking point, and as a pointer to days, when, among other things, we can “get off the utilities.” House today, he says, depends on a network of wires and pipes, all part of a very big and very expensive system. But the time is rapidly nearing when we shall be able to discard these umbilical cords, drawing power directly from the sun and the wind, storing and recycling rain for all the water we need, and disposing of waste by selfcontained biological processes instead of down the sewer. Backyard' industries and garage factories will also become viable and more interesting. “The microprocessor is a ‘smart device’ which can control all this,” he says confidently. In the meantime, as part of his job, he studies change and reactions to change. For instance, he asks Americans who have moved to New Zealand why they came here. “Mostly it is because they don’t like the way their society is going.. They looked around the world and saw New Zealand as-ideal for keeping civilisation alive through the dark ages they saw ahead.”

Why have some of these Americans since left? “They discovered that we haven’t realised our advantages. They began to ask themselves why they should stay here, with our lower living standards, in a society which shows no sign of recognising its opportunities. “So they went back. It would be different if New Zealanders showed signs of wanting to change.” • But Commander Ryan says he is optimistic. The seeds of change have ab ready been planted here, and are growing, and the confidence which brought him here from Britain is undiminished. He is a New Zealander thrice over — by birth, in Dunedin, while his British father was serving a stint with the New Zealand navy; by parentage, because his mother was a New Zealander; and by choice, because he deliberately chose this country for his home for the family future. Transferring to the Royal New Zealand Navy, was the means by which it was done, but he did not stay in the navy for long. When the Commission for the Future advertised for a director, he leapt at the chance. Now he appears to be in his element, helping run what by definition is New Zealand’s most longsighted and far-ranging think tank. “This job is heaven-sent for what I want to do, to be part of the change which is taking place m Our society. I see us having a romantic and exciting future,” he says. The commission’s task of provoking public discussion on New Zealand’s options is, he suggests, the nearest approach to “anticipatory democracy” that any country in the world has so far achieved.