Building peace on rubble of Rhodesian war

Press, 24 April 1980, Page 16

Building peace on rubble of Rhodesian war

By

PAUL ELLMIAN

in Salisbury for the “Guardian, ’ London

For one Zimbabwean, in seven the miraculous jpeace which has descended Supon the country since Mr Ra bert Mugabe won his sweeping mandate to govern has oome too late. The raising of the new nation’s gaudy eq sign does not mean much n lore than a symbolic break ftvith the immediate Rhodiasian past. Apart from the 2'(,350 known to have been kiilled in the vicious seven years, of war, the forlorn fight to; regain white minority domination in its various guilses has left a legacy of dest; uction and degradation which only massive help from jthe outside world can repair. Out of a population tcs ailing seven million, fully <me million have been uprocf.ect from their homes, some. to seek refuge in neighbouring countries or in festering squatter camps around j.he cities and towns, others ■ to eke out a living in the 1 ocalled . protected villag es established to deny gu< ;r--rillas contact with rut al tribespeople. Had peace come to Zia nbabwe even six months era flier, this million could hciwe returned to their homes iin time to sow crops whilch would have been ripe Dir harvesting as .the wet season draws to an end this month.

Instead, the refugees and others displaced by the war are likely to have to survive on handouts from relief agencies for at least the first year of independence. For the 200,000 trapped in refugee camps in Zambia and Mozambique, repatriation will thus bring no relief. For those caught away from home inside Zimbabwe, the beggared uncertainty ot life in the cities is likely to remain more attractive than the hungry certainty of the Tribal Trust Lands. Chronicling the dry statistics of the aftermath of war, the Salvation Army in a recent report warned: “It nothing is done about these people within a year of the end of the war. there will be widespread starvation, disease, abandoned and orphaned children, alcohol addiction and violent crime affecting the entire population.” Many people in any case are already close to starvation, with large areas of land left untended because of the combined effects of the war and two successive vears of drought. Production of maize, the staple diet of Zimbabwean blacks, is likely to be down by a half this vear while in the northeast of the country it could be as

much as 70 per cent below normal levels. According to .the Roman Catholic Commission for Justice and Peace, rural blacks are presently able to afford only half the required consumption of maize while the International Committee of the Red Cross has estimated that 20 per cent of th; rural population is suffering from severe malnutrition. “The food situation in the tribal areas is the worst in living memory,” says Mr Eddie Cross, the chief economist of the agriculture marketing authority. The highly efficient white farming sector can just about produce enough food to cover immediate demands, but because of the war distribution problems are preventing it from reaching those who need it most. Of an estimated 5000 stores operating in rural areas, only 1500 are still open while many roads remain unsafe because landmines planted by guerrillas have yet to be cleared. Because of the guerrilla campaign against cattle dipping, which was portrayed as a symbol of government authority, the cattle which act as a relatively in-flation-proof form of wealth among rural blacks have

fallen victim to tick-borne diseases. It is estimated that no less than a third of the cattle herd in the Tribal Trust Lands has disappeared in the last five years, about a million head in all. The loss also means the disappearance ofg draught power to pull ploughs and hence a further decline in crop production. Apart from the problems which must be dealt with immediately, the war has also eroded the foundations of the future. About half the schools in Rhodesia were closed by the war, leaving 483,000 children without classrooms in a country where the population is growing at a rate of 3.6 per cent a year, among the highest in the world. Of the mission hospitals and clinics which often represent the only health care available to tribespeople, more than , half have been closed, only three doctors are still operating from mission stations, serving five times the number of people who have access to the 800 urban doctors. Diseases such as malaria and sleeping sickness, once thought to be well under control, are on the march again. A preliminary assessment by the United Nations High Commission for Refugees has concluded that $llO mil-

lion is needed immediately. More than 60 governments have been asked to contribute towards this sum, which will be used to provide shelter and food but, if their response so far to the even greater human disaster in Somalia is anything to go by. Zimbabwe is unlikely to secure the money. Hunger, ignorance and disease will not be the only threats to Mr Mugabe’s Govenrment as it battles to fulfil some of the aspirations of Zimbabwe’s blacks, aspirations which voters ultimately decided it was most likely to satisfy. The war left 195,000 men under arms, many of them voung black males who joined the Rhodesian security forces through sheer inability to find jobs in civilian life. Some 60,000 men, guerrillas as well as former members of the Rhodesian forces, will be demobilised by the end of June, a figure equal to a third of the total workforce employed in Rhodesian industry at present. The 60,000 will join another 100,000 who have lost their jobs in the economic recession of the past five years caused by the combined effects of the war, the decline in the world economy and the tightening of sanctions. Zimbabwe should be creat-

ing 60,000-70,000 new jobs a year to keep abreast of its expanding population without the added pressures caused by the demands of peace. Despite Mr Mugabe’s urgent pledges of moderation now that he is in office, local employers are likely to bide their time before embarking upon new expansion programmes. It will thus be up to the new Government to create new openings through expansion programmes of its own. Here again, however, the legacy of the war is a highly straitened set of resources, whether in the shape of tax returns or room to borrow further. Although the activities of Mr Mugabe’s own guerrillas are to a large extent responsible for much of the destruction caused by the war, his Government will enjoy one vital benefit denied to its predecessors — the access to world aid funds that derives from recognition as a full member of the international community. Thus, while Mr Mugabe and his Cabinet will design and erect the new signposts it will be up to the outside world to establish how far the country will go on its new journey, and also how difficult the going will be.