THE PRESS TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 1980. Not easy in Afghanistan

Press, 26 February 1980, Page 16

THE PRESS TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 1980. Not easy in Afghanistan

The . Soviet Union is running into trouble-in imposing the Government of Mr Babrak Karmal on Afghanistan. The extent to which those opposing the Government will be successful seems likely to be limited. In; the mountains a guerrilla campaign could be waged for a long time. The sketchy details available about the Soviet Army suggest that it is sounder at following planned movements than in showing the adaptability that a guerrilla campaign would involve. Yet in the towns the number of Soviet troops, and their firepower, seem likely to give them victory completely in the short term.

One of the greatest problems faced by those fighting is the supply of arms. Even if they could match rifle against rifle, what defence would they have against air power? They will find few to help them. The United States, for all the accusations that are made against it from time to time, would not want to risk being clearly seen to be involved in the area. The Chinese might be tempted but even if Chinese arms could match Soviet arms, the point at which Afghanistan touches China is impassable. China would therefore have to use other countries as a supply route to Afghanistan. Neither Iran nor Pakistan would risk arousing Soviet ire by allowing arms through their countries when those arms would find their way into the hands of those fighting Soviet soldiers. Soviet suspicions about Pakistan, which has half a million refugees from Afghanistan, will not die easily. In Pakistan the issue at least approaches the sensitivity with which Pakistan normally conducts its relations with India.

Why the shopkeepers in'Kabul are not opening their “shops is not clear.

Probably the reasons vary. Some shopkeepers will, fear retaliation from those who oppose the Government if they do open. Others will fear looting in the riots. Insufficient information is available to judge whether there is also some of the same deep-seated protest which was to be seen in Teheran against the Government, of; the Shah. Because of Islamic links between the bazaars and the mosques, in which the whole traditional economy is involved, the bazaaris’ protest had a weight in Iran which was not obvious at first. In Afghanistan, too, the mullahs are important and much of the anti-Government feeling has its roots in Islam. Whether the Government, with the help of the Soviet troops, will be able to force shopkeepers to open, or even provide the security in which they would feel safe to open, remains to be seen. The difficulties over the shopkeepers and the guerrilla fighting will test the patience of the Soviet Union as a country and the patience of Soviet commanders in Afghanistan. How will they react under these strains? Because of Vietnam, the world has had the chance to observe how the United States reacts and learns from the strains of a war that does not go its way, but little is known about the Soviet Union in this respect In Egypt and Somalia the Soviet Union decided to withdraw when it was asked to do so by the Governments, but those countries were far from Soviet borders, whereas Afghanistan is just over the border, though an inconvenient one. If the Afghanistan fighting continues, not only Iran and Pakistan as well as the Afghanis themselves will fear Soviet exasperation, but the whole world will feel more concerned than it does even now.