Zia fears ladies in waiting

Press, 25 February 1980, Page 16

Zia fears ladies in waiting

By

SHYAM BHATIA

in Islamabad

The grave of Pakistan’s executed President ZuHiqar Ali Bhutto has become an exalted place. Some of those who visit the spot plaster their hair and faces with mud from the graveside. It is ritual full of meaning for loyalists belonging to the Pakistan People’s Party, which Bhutto led until his overthrow in an army coup: some say the mud from the grave of a saint cures all 'ailments; others that the custom is simply a mark of respect for the memory of a departed hero. The. memory of Bhutto haunts General Zia U 1 Haq, the army commander-in-chief who organised the coup and who has since been elevated to President of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Although the Bhutto family still has its political enemies, including some who suffered personally at the hands of the late President, the consensus within Pakistan is that in free elections Bhutto’s P.P.P. would sweep the polls. The “ladies,” as Bhutto’s wife and daughter are . referred to, would then rule

and wreak vengeance on the army group that now runs the country. The prospect of the P.P.P. returning to power is the main reason why Zia has repeatedly postponed elections. And the hostility of P.P.P. supporters prevents him from widening his political base at a time when Pakistan needs to stand united against the Soviet threat across the border in Afghanistan. Zia does not appear to have planned for a long stay in power when he took over in 1977. As recently as last summer, he was fond Of telling visiting foreign dignitaries that he was anxious to return to barracks. He began his rule auspiciously enough by including in government the leaders of the opposition Pakistan National Alliance (P.N.A.), who helped to topple Bhutto after he allegedly rigged the 1977 general elections. But the P.N.A. leaders distanced themselves from Zia shortly afterwards and he, fearing the imminent return of a hostile civilian govern-, ment dominated by the P.P.P., has forumulated a

strategy for survival that depends on the army and, to a lesser extent, on the loyalty of Islamic fundamentalists. Not that Zia’s rule has been - without benefits for Pakistan. The army has restored law and order, exports are up and growth rates have averaged 8 per cent in the past -two years. The Finance Minister, Mr Ghulam Ishaq Khan, says: “We have achieved remarkable results. The economy had been brought to a virtual standstill during the last Administration.” The military Government faces challenges on two main fronts. In the west, dissident Baluchi tribesmen may come to regard an unresponsive capital as yet another reason for accepting Soviet help in return for giving Moscow access to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean. Elsewhere in the country, the heavy hand of the martial law administration has created still more hostility among the P.P.P. The opposition has not had a chance to express itself so far because thousands of activists (local estimates put the

number at more than 20,000) are either in jail or under house arrest. Opponents of the regime say it is a measure of Zia’s political isolation that when Islamic demonstrators, acting on false information, surrounded the American Embassy in Islamabad last December,' he was faced with an agonising choice. He could either arrest the demonstrators and thereby lose the support of his only remaining political allies, the Islamic fundamentalists, or

he could let the embassy burn. Zia chose the latter. The burning of the embassy was an embarrassing prelude to the start of the improved U.S.-Pakistan relationship promised by President Carter’s National Security Adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski. The Americans are concerned that the country’s political divisions will provide Moscow with new opportunities for mischief. Zia’s proposed remedy is a “national consultative council,” on which all the profes-

sions, including doctors, lawyers and students, will be represented. Even that, in the absence of any concrete resolve, is in danger of being a pipedream. The chances are that the military and economic aid package now being put together by Pakistan’s friends will provide Zia with an excuse to postpone rather than promote a return to popular government. Copyright London Observer Service.