Saudi stability hit by mosque battle

Press, 27 December 1979, Page 12

Saudi stability hit by mosque battle

By

JULIET PEARCE,

in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

The battle of the Grand Mosque at Mecca has destroyed Saudi Arabia’s undeserved reputation as the “safest land on Earth.” In truth, it is, like other oil-rich Arab countries, a tangle of religious, political, and social problems caused by the inevitable clash between religious fundamentalism and the influx of money and Western technology. Western diplomats feel that, despite the apparent calm of the ruling family headed by King Khalid, the Government is ill-equipped to face the crisis. The Mecca attack and the twoweek siege which followed revealed an inadequate security apparatus, much confusion, and poor handling of press relations. There is a feeling in the thriving Red Sea port of Jeddah, where most foreign embassies are located, that the problems have barely begun. The Mecca events have merely pinpointed the deep-rooted religious unrest.

Reports have spoken of demonstrations by members of the Shia sect in the eastern part of the country, the centre of Saudi oil production. The Shias represent 15 per cent of Saudi Arabia’s estimated 6 million indigenous inhabitants.

There were no details of the extent of the unrest, but, having for years underestimated Iran’s potential for violence, diplomats are not taking Saudi Arabia’s problems lightly. “Sitting on billions of barrels of oil is almost like sitting on dynamite these days,” one said. For the Western industrial nations the stakes are enormous. Saudi Arabia has a quarter of the world’s oil reserves. The country pumps 9.5 million barrels of crude a day to keep the wheels of West European and American industry turning. Its $42,000 million five-

year development plan ending next year has provided hundreds of Western companies with contracts, and $40,000 million has been earmarked for a crash development programme in the eastern province.

Should serious unrest start, it could provoke an international economic and political crisis of incalculable proportions, diplomats feel.

Saudi officials and foreign envoys are trying to “keep things in perspective,” not easy in a country which does not believe in a free flow of information. Even the latest figures on the Grand Mosque’s casualties could not be verified.

The Government said 60 Saudi soldiers had been killed, and 200 wounded. The victims among the “religious fanatics” who invaded the shrine on 20 November were said to be 75 killed and 175 wounded. How many took part in the invasion and how many escaped is still a mystery.

Initially, a figure of some 1000 men, women, and children, followers of the “prophet mahdi”, was mentioned. They included Saudis, Yemenis. Egyptians, Kuwaitis, Pakistanis, and Moroccans.

One thing is certain: the Government had no inkling of the plot, which coincided with the dawn of Islam’s new century, the first of Muharram, 1400. In plain terms, one of Islam’s holiest shrines was taken over in the middle of the richest Islamic country in the world, equipped with billions of dollars worh of military gadgets. The suspect belief in Saudi Arabia’s stability was based on two factors: its immense oil wealth and the fact that the country remains a bastion of Islamic tradition.

Most diplomats were convinced that, in a country where the Koran dictates daily behaviour, there was no room for Islamic turmoil. Such an assessment underestimated the fragmentation of Islam into sects and the growing cla-

mou? by the fundamentalists agains the consumer society created by Saudi Arabia’s petro-billions.

There is a basic clash between Sharia, the Muslim law under which the country functions, and the oil concessions and myriad other contacts based on Western contract law.

A growing number of Saudis resent the behaviour of some of the 4000-strong royal family, whose reputation for frolicking abroad seems to have reached the country in exaggerated versions.

Finally, while Saudi Arabia has spent its billions on building modern cities in the middle of nowhere, and on costly ports and industrial cenres, most of the population have remained spectators, albeit wealthy, of the boom. The actual work is being performed by an imported labour force of some two million. This has created two societies in the closed and suspicious world of Saudi Arabia, another potential source of unrest.

In conacts with foreigners, Saudi officials still scoff at any speculation of danger. "Our house is as solid as a rock.” is the phrase one hears. Foreigners tend to be more sceptical. The fact that a number of Western firms have discreetly drawn up "contingency plans” is a sign of the mood of the foreign community — O.F.N.S. Copyright.