Prediction of civil war in Philippines crisis

Press, 3 October 1979, Page 18

Prediction of civil war in Philippines crisis

18y

VIJITHA YAPA

. in Manila

After seven years of Martial Law, President Marcos of the Philippines is realising that the strength of those opposed to him is greater than he thought. In the last weeks, there have been increasing cries for the lifting of Martial Law and for Marcos to step down to “avoid a civil war.” President Marcos said on September 21, 1979 (the seventh anniversary of Martial Law) that “it is only a weak leader who imposes himself w’hen he is not wanted. I am your leader at your order.” Meanwhile the Government Infoimation Ministry was announcing the findings of_a survey which shows that 72 per cent of the people were happy with Martial Law. But, as a university' student commented, “The way to test it is with free polls, not by surveys conducted by the Government.” In the last months, those opposed to President Marcos have begun to speak out boldly. One of the boldest occasions was the seventysecond birthday of former president of the Senate. Mr Gil Puyat. Preside it Marcos was to grace the occasion in late August at the Manila Hotel, but sent his w’ife instead. A former Speaker of the House of Representatives, IVJr Jose Laurel, said that “Martial Law’ was the avoidable deterrent” to those w r ho would like to offer their services to the Government. To

him, the ending of Martial Law would be “the imperative catalyst” needed. Former Senator Benigno Aquino, who has been in prison for nearly seven years, had a speech read by his wife. “Will the seventies be remembered as a decade of decadence, cowardice, escapism, and insulation from realities?’’ he asked. He hoped and prayed that “our generation will not be found wanting.” He said he feared “the retribution when it finally catches up with us for cur neutrality and inaction during a time of great moral crises. And I am even more fearful of the revenge of histoffy.” Mrs Imelda Marcos, the wife of the President, took it all in her stride. But President Maucos lashed out a few days later warning political enemies not to test their luck. He diescribed the activities of the Oppositioi- as the “last convulsions of the dying old society.'” He warned that the time may have come to “eliminate their vestiges.” President Marcos has announced that the strength of the Army Reserve Command will be increased from 150.000 to 900,000 with a fully equipped battalion in each province. Some say that Marcos is not sture about the loyalty of the army and hence the need to increase the size of the A.R.C., which will have a mass base of citizens’ reserves. Another personality who does not mince words is the de facto leader of the Roman Catholic Church of the Philip-

pines. Cardinal Jaime Sin. (Eighty per cent of the Filipinos are Catholics.) This burly man, with infectious laughter, speaks with authority and is listened to. At a luncheon meeting recently, he expressed fears to Catholic laymen about the current anti-Government feeling in the country and said that the church may not be able to stop it. Warning the nation of a possible civil war, the Cardinal asked the President “to announce formally to the people how much time he would need to tie up loose ends and to prepare the machinery for the holding of a national 'lection.” He added, “And when he does call the elections, I would want him to give an unconditional guarantee that the elections would be free and orderly and peaceful.” President Marcos also has his problems in the south, where the secessionist Moro National Liberation Front (M.N.L.F.) seem to have linked up with the Communist New People’s Army. Serious crimes are also increasing in the Philippines. With inflation running at more than 20 per cent and the nation’s foreign debt racing towards $lO billion, the magic of Martial Law as a panacea for all ills is beginning to wear off. The indications are that to remain in power, Marcos will have to make some real concessions out of necessity, and not merely restrict himself to promises.